GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?

Name: Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
End: 2026-09-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$450.68

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?

Vol

$450.68

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $450.68

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $450.68

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?	Poly	92%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$450.68

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS wa

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS wa

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $451
* **Total Liquidity:** $71
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 1, 2026): Vol $451
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate