This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Name: Crude Oil all time high by...?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$524.51

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Vol

$524.51

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $524.51

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $524.51

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Poly	23%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Poly	16%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	Poly	16%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$524.51

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two busines

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Crude Oil all time high by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (174 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two busines

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $547
* **Total Liquidity:** $119.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $370
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $170
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics