Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

Total Volume

$3.12K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

Vol

$3.12K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.12K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.12K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?	Kalshi	76%
Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?	Kalshi	19%
Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$3.12K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If X signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A, explicitly states the event claim o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If X signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A, explicitly states the event claim o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $602
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $96
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

Volume$3.12K

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

If Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

If ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or establi

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

If ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or est

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

35¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/_MzjbV" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

Markets (3)

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement?

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget