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$63.56K
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4
$63.56K
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4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle bet
Prediction markets currently give a 99% chance that Wellington's temperature will not exceed 13°C on February 21. In practical terms, traders are almost certain the day's high will be 13 degrees or cooler. This represents an extremely high level of confidence, akin to expecting a near-guaranteed outcome.
Two main factors explain this overwhelming consensus. First, the date falls in late summer for New Zealand, but Wellington's climate is famously temperate and windy due to its coastal location. The city rarely experiences true heat, even in February. Its average high this month is only about 20°C, and many days are cooler.
Second, and more specifically, available weather forecasts for that date already indicate cool conditions. Prediction markets often incorporate existing short-term forecasts when they show high certainty. For a weather event just days away, meteorological models are relatively reliable, so the market is aligning with a clear professional forecast for a cool, possibly cloudy and breezy, day at the airport station.
The main event is the day itself, February 21. The official high temperature will be confirmed shortly after midnight on February 22 (local time) when the weather station's daily data finalizes. The only thing that could shift the prediction now would be a sudden, unexpected change in weather modeling in the final 24-48 hours before the 21st, such as a dramatic forecast shift suggesting a warm northerly wind. This is considered very unlikely.
For short-term weather outcomes, prediction markets tend to be accurate when they show such extreme certainty. They effectively aggregate the latest forecast data and trader confidence in it. The limitation is that they are not predicting the weather themselves, but rather the accuracy of the existing forecast. For a mundane weather question like a daily high temperature just a few days out, the main professional forecasts are usually correct, so the market odds reliably reflect that.
Prediction markets on Polymarket show near-certainty that Wellington's temperature will not exceed 13°C on February 21. The leading contract, "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on February 21?", is trading at 99 cents, implying a 99% probability. This price indicates traders view the outcome as virtually guaranteed. With over $122,000 in total volume across related temperature-band markets, liquidity is sufficient for the odds to be meaningful. All other contracts for higher temperature ranges are trading at 1% or below.
The market's extreme confidence is rooted in Wellington's reliable late-summer climate and specific forecast data. February is Wellington's warmest month, but its maritime climate moderated by the Cook Strait typically prevents extreme heat. The average daily high in February is about 20°C, but the airport station's specific location is often cooler and windier than the city center. Historical data from Metservice and NIWA shows temperatures exceeding 25°C at the airport occur on fewer than 10% of February days. The current deterministic and ensemble weather model outputs for February 21, 2026, available through global forecasting systems, consistently show a dominant southwesterly flow. This pattern typically brings cool, unsettled air to the region, capping maximum temperatures.
With the market at 99%, the only meaningful shift would require a drastic, unforeseen change in the meteorological outlook. A significant model error or a rapid breakdown in the predicted synoptic pattern could alter the odds. For example, if a strong, hot northerly wind flow from Australia were to develop closer to the date, it could push temperatures toward the 20-25°C range. However, given the forecast lead time and the consistency of model runs, such a reversal is considered highly improbable. The market will be sensitive to any official Metservice forecasts issued in the 3-5 days prior to February 21, but substantial movement from the current 99% price is unlikely barring a major forecasting failure.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature at Wellington International Airport on February 21, 2026. The market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded at the official weather station (NZWN) for that specific date, using data from Weather Underground's historical archive. This type of market allows participants to speculate on a precise meteorological outcome, turning a routine weather observation into a tradable financial instrument. Interest stems from both meteorological forecasting challenges and the financial dynamics of prediction markets. Wellington's weather is notoriously variable due to its coastal location at the southern tip of New Zealand's North Island, exposed to the Roaring Forties wind belt. The city experiences what locals call 'four seasons in one day,' making single-day temperature predictions particularly uncertain. February is typically the warmest month, but daily highs can fluctuate dramatically based on wind direction, cloud cover, and the presence of weather fronts. The market's resolution source, Weather Underground, aggregates data from official meteorological stations, providing a reliable and publicly verifiable record. Participants in this market are effectively betting on the accuracy of various weather models and historical climate patterns for a single point in time. This combines elements of climatology, short-term forecasting, and financial speculation.
Wellington's official temperature records at the Kelburn site date back to 1928, providing over 90 years of climate data. The airport station (NZWN), used for this market, has a shorter but consistent record. Historically, February is Wellington's warmest month. The average daily maximum temperature in February at the airport is 20.2°C (68.4°F), based on the 1991-2020 climate normal period. However, extremes define the betting ranges. The highest temperature ever recorded in Wellington was 31.1°C (88.0°F) on February 7, 2008, at the now-closed Thorndon site. At the airport station, February extremes are slightly moderated by the coastal influence. For example, in February 2023, the airport recorded a high of 26.5°C. The lowest February maximum on record is just 13.5°C, demonstrating the vast potential range. A significant precedent for this market is the trend of warming temperatures. NIWA's 'Seven Station Series' shows New Zealand's annual average temperature increased by 1.26°C between 1909 and 2022. This warming trend increases the statistical likelihood of higher temperatures in modern records compared to the early 20th century. Past weather patterns, such as the prevalence of northerly winds bringing warm air from the tropics or southerly outbreaks bringing cold Antarctic air, directly inform probabilistic forecasts for a future February day.
Beyond the prediction market itself, the outcome reflects broader climate patterns affecting the Wellington region. An unusually high temperature could signal marine heatwave conditions in the Cook Strait or a persistent high-pressure system, with implications for local agriculture, water resources, and wildfire risk. For the city, extreme heat can strain energy grids due to increased air conditioning use and pose public health risks. Economically, weather derivatives and prediction markets are a growing financial sector. This market is a micro-example of how meteorological data is being financialized, allowing businesses to hedge against weather-related risks or speculators to profit from forecasting skill. The result contributes a single data point to the long-term climate record for Wellington. Scientists at NIWA and elsewhere analyze sequences of such daily extremes to identify changes in climate variability and the frequency of heat events. A record-breaking temperature on this day would be cited in future climate assessments and reports on urban heating in New Zealand's capital.
As of early 2025, participants are looking at long-range climate model projections for the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2025-2026. These models consider factors like the potential phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has a strong influence on New Zealand's summer temperatures. The most immediate data points are the observed temperatures for February 21 in recent years at Wellington Airport. For February 21, 2024, the maximum temperature was 22.5°C. The market will become more active as the date approaches and short-term forecast models from MetService and global agencies begin to provide specific predictions for February 21, 2026.
The highest temperature ever recorded in Wellington is 31.1°C (88.0°F), measured at the Thorndon weather station on February 7, 2008. The airport station used for this market has likely never exceeded 30°C.
Wellington International Airport (NZWN) is the official climatological station for the area, with consistent instrumentation and a long, reliable record. Its coastal location at sea level is more representative of where most Wellingtonians live than the older, hilltop Kelburn observatory.
Specific daily forecasts are not possible years in advance. This market relies on climatological probabilities initially, then seasonal outlooks, and finally short-term forecasts in the days before February 21, 2026. The skill of a 10-day forecast is far higher than a 2-year outlook.
In summer, the maximum temperature typically occurs between 3:00 PM and 5:00 PM NZDT. The market resolves on the highest single reading recorded at any time during the calendar day (midnight to midnight).
Wind direction is critical. A strong northerly wind can bring warm, subtropical air, raising temperatures. Conversely, a southerly wind directly from the Antarctic can cause temperatures to drop sharply, even in summer. The famous Wellington wind is a major forecasting variable.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
4 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 83% |
| Poly | 17% |
| Poly | 0% |
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