Name: Highest temperature in Ankara on March 1?
End: 2026-03-01T12:00:00.000Z

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Highest temperature in Ankara on March 1? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $87.59K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $87.59K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 1?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 1?	Poly	49%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 1?	Poly	41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 1?	Poly	39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 1?	Poly	24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 1?	Poly	16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 1?	Poly	14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 1?	Poly	3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on March 1?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 1?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$87.59K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Ankara on March 1?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.

To toggle between 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $44.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $109.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $11.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $11.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $365
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $144
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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