Recession in 2025? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Recession in 2025?

Total Volume

$4.66M

Events

Markets

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Recession in 2025?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.66M

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.66M

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will there be a recession in 2025?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be a recession in 2025?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$4.66M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2026 If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP. If this event occur

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Recession in 2025?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2026

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP. If this event occur

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.66M
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.60M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be a recession in 2025?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2026): Vol $4.66M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

2¢

Kalshi

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Recession in 2025?

Recession in 2025?

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Will there be a recession in 2025?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)