Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-10-18T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$19.65

Events

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UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)

Vol

$19.65

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.65

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.65

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Fight to Go the Distance?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	51%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Will the fight be won by decision?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end before Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end before Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Cristian Pérez win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will Cristian Pérez win in Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will Cristian Pérez win in Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end in a decision or draw?	Poly	51%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Kyle Nelson win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Cristian Pérez win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	50%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	50%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)	Poly	28%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$19.65

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Kyle Nelson" if Kyle Nelson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026. It will resolve to "Cristian Pérez" if Cristian Pérez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 18, 2026 (7 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Kyle Nelson" if Kyle Nelson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026.

It will resolve to "Cristian Pérez" if Cristian Pérez is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Kyle Nelson" if Kyle Nelson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026.

It will resolve to "Cristian Pérez" if Cristian Pérez is officially declared the winner.

If the fig"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Kyle Nelson: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [Cristian Pérez: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kyle Nelson win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Cristian Pérez win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the fight be won by decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the fight end before Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the fight end before Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Cristian Pérez win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Cristian Pérez win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Cristian Pérez win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the fight end in a decision or draw?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)

Volume$19.65

Markets19

19 of 19

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Kyle Nelson and Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws de

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by decision?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight be won by decision?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Kyle Nelson and Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, is won by decision, including unanimous, split, majority, and technical decisions. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a

POLYMARKET

Will the fight end before Round 2?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight end before Round 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Kyle Nelson and Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, officially ends before Round 2 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage,

POLYMARKET

Will the fight end before Round 3?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight end before Round 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Kyle Nelson and Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, officially ends before Round 3 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage,

POLYMARKET

Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kyle Nelson defeats Cristian Pérez at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No

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Oct 18, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/jq_YNj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)

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Fight to Go the Distance?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)

Markets (19)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?

Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?

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Discussion

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Fight to Go the Distance?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Pérez (Lightweight, Main Card)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?

Will Kyle Nelson win in Round 1?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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