Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEarnings

Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-01-29T22:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$43.19K

Events

Markets

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Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?

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Polymarket

markets · $43.19K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $43.19K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	94%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$43.19K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on January 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Apple releases earnings with

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Earnings | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 29, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on January 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Apple releases earnings with

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on January 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.67 for the relevant quarter in it"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $43.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.45)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2026): Vol $43.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

94¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/jr05El" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?"></iframe>

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Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?

Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?

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Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)