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This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service mem
Prediction markets currently give about a 28% chance that US military personnel will physically enter Venezuela by March 31, 2026. In simpler terms, traders collectively see this as unlikely, roughly a 1 in 4 possibility. This reflects a significant bet against a direct US military intervention on Venezuelan soil in the near term, despite ongoing political and humanitarian crises in the country.
The low probability is based on several factors. First, recent US policy toward Venezuela has focused on diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions, not military options. The Biden administration has engaged in negotiations, including a limited sanctions relief deal in late 2023 tied to electoral guarantees, signaling a preference for non-military tools.
Second, the geopolitical risks of such an intervention are high. Venezuela has strong military ties with Russia and China. A direct US military entry could trigger a major international confrontation and would likely face strong opposition across Latin America, making it a politically costly option.
Finally, historical context matters. The US has a long history of political and sometimes covert intervention in Latin America, but overt large-scale military invasions have been rare in recent decades. The market odds suggest traders believe the current situation, while volatile, does not meet the threshold for a direct troop deployment.
The main event before the market closes is the Venezuelan presidential election scheduled for July 28, 2024. How the US and international community respond to the election's conduct and outcome could shift these odds. A severely disputed result, widespread violence, or a complete collapse of diplomatic talks might increase speculation about intervention.
Other signals include significant changes in US rhetoric or military posture in the region, such as moving naval assets closer to Venezuela. Also watch for any major escalation in Venezuela's internal conflict or a drastic worsening of the humanitarian situation that could increase calls for a military response.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on geopolitical "yes/no" events like this. They often effectively aggregate expert opinions on probabilities, but they can be swayed by news headlines and short-term sentiment. For low-probability, high-impact events—sometimes called "black swan" events—markets can underestimate sudden shifts. The 28% chance is not a scientific forecast, but it does represent a real-money consensus that currently views military entry as a distinct minority possibility, not the expected path forward.
The Polymarket contract "US forces in Venezuela again by March 31, 2026?" is trading at 28 cents, indicating a 28% probability. This price reflects a market consensus that a direct US military incursion into Venezuelan territory is unlikely but not impossible within the next two years. With $1.2 million in total volume, this is a highly liquid market, suggesting significant trader interest and confidence in the current price as a meaningful signal.
The low probability is anchored in current US foreign policy, which prioritizes diplomatic and economic pressure over military intervention. The Biden administration's primary tools against the Maduro government have been sanctions relief in exchange for electoral concessions and support for Venezuela's opposition. A sudden shift to overt military action would represent a drastic and costly escalation with limited strategic justification for Washington. Historically, US military interventions in Latin America have become less frequent and far more politically contentious domestically.
Traders are also weighing the regional geopolitical context. While Venezuela's political and humanitarian crisis persists, neighboring Colombia and Brazil have not signaled support for a foreign military intervention. The absence of a regional coalition or a clear triggering event, like an attack on US diplomats, makes a unilateral ground operation a remote scenario.
The 28% price leaves room for scenarios that could force a rapid reassessment. A sudden collapse of Venezuela's state authority, leading to a failed-state situation that threatens regional stability or creates a vacuum for transnational criminal groups, could increase intervention talk. More directly, any hostile action against US embassy personnel in Caracas would immediately spike the probability. The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election is another variable. A new administration could adopt a more hawkish posture, though a full-scale ground invasion would remain a last resort. Market odds would likely move on official rhetoric from the Pentagon or State Department that explicitly frames Venezuela as an imminent national security threat requiring a military response.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether active United States military personnel will physically enter Venezuelan territory before the specified deadline. The question reflects ongoing tensions between the United States and the government of Nicolás Maduro, and concerns about potential foreign intervention in Venezuela's prolonged political and economic crisis. For the market to resolve as 'Yes,' uniformed members of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, or Space Force must cross into Venezuela's terrestrial borders. This excludes intelligence operatives, military contractors, and advisors, and does not count entry into Venezuelan airspace or territorial waters. The scenario typically involves speculation about a potential military operation, whether for humanitarian purposes, regime change, counter-narcotics activities, or securing assets. Interest in this topic stems from Venezuela's status as a major oil producer with significant geopolitical importance, its alliances with U.S. adversaries like Russia and Iran, and the persistent humanitarian emergency within its borders. The possibility of U.S. military action is a recurring subject in foreign policy analysis, given Washington's longstanding recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's legitimate president from 2019 to 2023 and its maintenance of extensive sanctions against the Maduro administration. Recent diplomatic engagements, including the Biden administration's temporary sanctions relief in late 2023, have created a complex backdrop where military intervention is considered less likely but not impossible, especially if political negotiations collapse or regional security deteriorates.
The prospect of U.S. military intervention in Venezuela has historical roots in the Monroe Doctrine and decades of U.S. involvement in Latin America. A direct precedent occurred in 1989 with Operation Just Cause, the U.S. invasion of Panama to depose Manuel Noriega. More recently, the 2019 political crisis created conditions where intervention was seriously discussed. Following Maduro's controversial re-election in 2018, the U.S., under President Donald Trump, recognized National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó as interim president in January 2019. Trump stated 'all options are on the table' regarding Venezuela, and his administration held meetings with Venezuelan military defectors. In February 2019, U.S. aid convoys attempted to enter Venezuela from Colombia, resulting in clashes at the border. While no U.S. troops crossed over, the event highlighted the potential for a military-led humanitarian intervention. Another relevant precedent is the 1965 U.S. intervention in the Dominican Republic, where Marines were deployed during a civil war. Venezuela itself has not seen a direct U.S. military incursion since the early 20th century, but the U.S. Navy has conducted exercises in international waters near Venezuela, which Caracas routinely condemns as provocations. The long history of U.S. support for opposition groups and economic sanctions creates a persistent context of hostility where military action remains a plausible, if extreme, policy tool.
A U.S. military entry into Venezuela would have immediate and profound consequences. Regionally, it could destabilize Latin America, potentially causing a refugee crisis exceeding the current exodus of over 7.7 million Venezuelans. Neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil, which host large Venezuelan populations, could face security spillovers and political backlash. Such an action would likely violate the Charter of the Organization of American States, damaging U.S. relations with regional partners who oppose intervention. Globally, it would escalate tensions with Russia and China, both of which have invested heavily in Venezuela's oil sector and maintain military cooperation agreements with Caracas. Russia has deployed military personnel to Venezuela in the past, raising the risk of a proxy conflict. Economically, Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. A military intervention could disrupt global oil markets, spike prices, and jeopardize the assets of foreign oil companies still operating there under sanctions waivers. For the Venezuelan people, an intervention could either precipitate a violent conflict or, in a best-case scenario, facilitate humanitarian aid delivery to a population where 50% face food insecurity according to the UN. The political ramifications would include a definitive end to any negotiated solution and could set a precedent for U.S. military action against other adversarial governments in the hemisphere.
As of mid-2024, the immediate likelihood of U.S. forces entering Venezuela is assessed as low by most analysts. The Biden administration is focused on a diplomatic track, conditioned on Maduro allowing a competitive presidential election in July 2024. The U.S. reinstated sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gold sectors in April 2024 after the Maduro government blocked the candidacy of leading opposition figure María Corina Machado. U.S. Southern Command continues routine regional exercises and monitoring but has not publicly signaled preparation for intervention. The Maduro government, while engaging in sporadic talks, regularly accuses the U.S. of planning an invasion and conducts its own military exercises, often with Russian advisors present. The situation remains a stalemate, with the threat of military action serving as a background deterrent rather than an imminent prospect.
The United States has not launched a full-scale invasion of Venezuela in modern history. However, U.S. naval forces blockaded Venezuelan ports and supported opposition forces during the 1902-1903 Venezuela Crisis, a conflict over foreign debt. More recently, the U.S. has conducted military exercises near Venezuelan waters and provided support to Venezuelan opposition groups, but no direct combat incursion has occurred.
As of 2024, there are no publicly acknowledged deployments of active U.S. military personnel inside Venezuelan territory. U.S. Southern Command conducts regional surveillance, intelligence gathering, and training exercises with partner nations in the Caribbean and Latin America. Any covert operations by U.S. forces would not be disclosed by the Pentagon.
Potential justifications cited by analysts include conducting a humanitarian intervention to deliver aid, supporting a democratic transition against an authoritarian regime, disrupting drug trafficking networks, countering Russian or Iranian influence, or securing Venezuelan oil assets. Any decision would require a presidential order and likely Congressional consultation.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 12% |
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