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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Name: US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.28M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Vol

$1.28M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.28M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.28M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Poly	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

12%

Top Probability

$1.28M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service mem

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, August 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service mem

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physic"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $198.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $198.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics