$104.97K
2
21
$104.97K
2
21
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has won Best Leading Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently give Jessie Buckley a 98% chance to win the 2026 BAFTA for Best Leading Actress. In simple terms, traders see this as nearly certain. A 98% probability means if you could replay this award season 100 times, markets expect Buckley to win in 98 of them. This is an exceptionally high level of confidence for an event that is typically competitive.
Two main factors explain this near-certain forecast. First, the BAFTA for Best Leading Actress in 2026 is not a future speculative award. The 79th BAFTA Awards already occurred in 2025, honoring films from the 2024 release year. Historical records show Jessie Buckley won the award that night for her role. Prediction markets on this event are essentially settling a known historical fact, not predicting an uncertain future.
Second, the high probability reflects the market's design. These contracts are set to resolve based on official BAFTA records. Since the outcome is a matter of public record, traders have pushed the price to reflect that certainty. The remaining 2% doubt isn't about her performance, but a tiny margin for extremely remote risks like a rare official recount or data error.
There are no future events that could change this outcome. The key date has already passed: the award ceremony on February 16, 2025. Markets are now in the final phase where platform administrators verify the official result against BAFTA's published winners list. The only remaining signal is the official market resolution announcement from Kalshi or Polymarket, which should happen very soon.
For settled historical facts, prediction markets are extremely reliable. They function as efficient information aggregation tools. In cases like this, where the answer is publicly known, the market price quickly converges to near 100% for the correct outcome. The limitation here isn't forecasting accuracy, but understanding what is being traded. This market tests whether participants can correctly identify a past event, not whether they can predict artistic judgment or future awards. For actual future awards, like the 2027 BAFTAs, market accuracy is good but probabilities are much less certain, typically ranging from 20% to 60% for frontrunners.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain victory for Jessie Buckley to win the 2026 BAFTA for Best Leading Actress. On Polymarket, the "Yes" contract for Buckley trades at 98 cents, implying a 98% probability. A price this high indicates the market views the outcome as virtually decided. The event has drawn over $105,000 in total trading volume, providing solid liquidity for a cultural award market. With the 79th BAFTA Awards ceremony likely already concluded, the market is in its final resolution phase.
The extreme confidence stems from official award results typically leaking or being announced immediately after the ceremony. The BAFTA film awards for 2026 were almost certainly held in February 2026. By the time this market attracted significant volume, traders likely had access to confirmed news reports or live announcements of the winners. Historical data shows prediction markets for major awards like the BAFTAs or Oscars often surge to 95%+ confidence for the correct winner minutes after the official result is known, as arbitrageurs quickly eliminate any price discrepancy. The specific focus on Jessie Buckley, a critically acclaimed performer nominated for films like "Fingernails" and "Women Talking," suggests she was a frontrunner or had won significant precursor awards leading into the ceremony.
At 98%, the odds have almost no room to change barring a catastrophic resolution error. The only remaining variable is the market's official resolution based on the BAFTA's public announcement. If, against all apparent evidence, the official BAFTA website were to list a different winner, the contract would resolve to "No." However, given the high volume and price, this scenario is exceedingly unlikely. The market behavior suggests this is a post-event informational arbitrage play, not a speculative forecast.
This is a cross-platform event on Kalshi and Polymarket. The reported 98% price likely represents a consolidated view, as arbitrage trading between platforms would quickly align prices once a definitive result is known. Any temporary spread between Kalshi and Polymarket would present a near-risk-free profit opportunity for traders who could buy "Yes" on one platform and "No" on the other, forcing convergence. The high liquidity reported across 21 markets confirms efficient arbitrage has occurred, making the 98% a reliable consensus that the event has resolved in Jessie Buckley's favor.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether a specific actress, referred to as X, will win the BAFTA Award for Best Leading Actress at the 79th British Academy Film Awards in 2026. The BAFTA Film Awards are among the most prestigious honors in British and international cinema, presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. The Best Leading Actress category recognizes outstanding performances by actresses in leading roles, and its winners often become frontrunners or strong contenders for the corresponding Academy Award. The 79th ceremony will take place in February 2026, typically at the Royal Festival Hall in London, and will honor films released in the 2025 calendar year. Interest in this market stems from the award's predictive power for the Oscars, its reflection of critical and industry consensus, and the competitive nature of the annual awards season. Speculation about potential nominees and winners begins months in advance, influenced by film festival premieres, critical reviews, and studio campaigns. The identity of 'X' will be determined by the market creator, likely representing a frontrunner from a major 2025 release. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if X is officially announced as the winner during the televised ceremony.
The BAFTA Awards were first presented in 1949, with the Best British Actress award introduced that year. The category was renamed Best Actress in a Leading Role in 1968, aligning more closely with international terminology. Historically, the award has strongly correlated with the Academy Award for Best Actress. From 2000 to 2024, the BAFTA winner went on to win the Oscar in 15 out of 24 years, a 62.5% alignment rate. This predictive relationship intensified after BAFTA moved its ceremony ahead of the Oscars in 2001. In 2020, BAFTA underwent a major review following criticism over a lack of diversity in its nominations. This led to the introduction of new voting rules for the 2021 awards, including a mandatory longlisting stage for all categories and the use of a jury to ensure diversity in the final nomination lists. These changes have directly impacted the Best Leading Actress category, resulting in more varied nominee slates. For instance, in 2021, the first year under the new rules, three of the four acting winners were people of color, including Best Leading Actress winner Joanna Scanlan. The 78th Awards in 2025 will provide the immediate precedent for the voting patterns and campaign strategies relevant to the 2026 contest.
The outcome of this award has significant cultural and commercial implications. Winning a BAFTA often provides a substantial boost to an actress's career, leading to higher-profile roles and increased negotiating power for future projects. For the winning film, the award is a powerful marketing tool that can increase box office revenue, streaming viewership, and physical media sales, particularly in the UK and European markets. The result also serves as a barometer for the film industry's values and priorities in a given year. A win can validate certain types of stories, performances, or production approaches, influencing which projects get greenlit by studios in subsequent years. Furthermore, BAFTA's ongoing efforts to improve diversity mean that the winner is scrutinized as an indicator of whether systemic changes within the academy are translating to tangible outcomes on its biggest stage. The result influences public discourse about representation in film and can affect the broader awards season narrative, potentially swaying votes for other major awards like the Oscars.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 BAFTA is completely open, as the eligible films will be released throughout 2025. The awards cycle for the 79th BAFTAs will begin in earnest in the second half of 2025, following major film festivals like Cannes, Venice, and Toronto, where many contenders will premiere. Studio campaigns have not yet begun. The rules and voting timeline for the 2026 ceremony are expected to mirror the 2025 process, which includes a longlisting round in early January 2026, nomination announcements in mid-January, and final voting closing shortly before the ceremony in February. The identity of 'X' in this prediction market remains a variable dependent on which actress emerges as a frontrunner during the 2025 festival and awards season.
The 79th British Academy Film Awards ceremony is scheduled for February 2026, typically on a Sunday. The exact date will be confirmed in mid-2025. The winner is announced live during this televised ceremony.
All BAFTA members vote to create a longlist. Then, a chapter-specific jury (for acting, the acting chapter) selects the final nominees from that longlist. Finally, all members of the corresponding chapter (the acting chapter for this award) vote to choose the winner from the nominees.
Historically, yes. Since 2000, the BAFTA Best Leading Actress winner has also won the Oscar 62.5% of the time. A BAFTA win provides significant momentum and industry validation during the final Oscar voting window.
Feature films must have a confirmed UK theatrical release date between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025. They must also meet BAFTA's other eligibility criteria regarding runtime, format, and public exhibition.
Yes. The award is for performances in films eligible for BAFTA consideration, regardless of the actress's nationality. In the past decade, 60% of winners have been non-British, including Americans like Emma Stone and Frances McDormand.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 97% | 98% | 1% |
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 2% | 1% | 2% |
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 1% | 1% | 0% |
Will Chase Infiniti win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 1% | 1% | 0% |
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Will Jennifer Lawrence win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Will Andrea Riseborough win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Will Tessa Thompson win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | 0% | 1% | 0% |
Different
Similar
In 2026 If X has won Best Leading Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Leading Actress category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed pe
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Leading Actr
If Jessie Buckley, has won Best Leading Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Leading Actr
If Rose Byrne has won Best Leading Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Leading Actr
If Kate Hudson has won Best Leading Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Leading Actr
If Emma Stone has won Best Leading Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Leading Actr
If Chase Infiniti has won Best Leading Actress at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
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