Dancing with the Stars S35: Will Jake Shane go on?
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Dancing with the Stars S35: Will Jake Shane go on?
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
Before 2027 If Jake Shane is on an episode Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jake Shane appears solely in an advertisement, or solely via a prerecorded audioclip that was not recorded for purposes of Dancing with the Stars Season 35 (e.g., the host playing a portion of a speech or song excerpt by Jake Shane), the Payout Criterion is not satisfied. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets give Jake Shane a 21% chance of appearing on Dancing with the Stars Season 35 before 2027. That is a low probability, meaning traders see this as unlikely but not impossible. For context, a 21% price implies roughly 4-1 odds against. The market is trading exclusively on Kalshi with no cross-platform comparison available.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Jake Shane is best known as a TikTok personality and podcast host of "Therapuss," not as a professional dancer or mainstream celebrity. Dancing with the Stars typically casts a mix of athletes, actors, musicians, and social media influencers, but Shane lacks the broad name recognition that producers usually target.
Season 35 is not scheduled to air until fall 2026 at the earliest, which gives time for Shane's profile to grow. But the current 21% price reflects skepticism about whether he will reach the level of fame required for a DWTS casting. The show has historically prioritized contestants with existing fan bases large enough to drive viewership, and Shane's audience, while substantial on TikTok, has not translated into major TV appearances.
What Could Change These Odds
The most direct catalyst would be Shane landing a high-profile media deal or expanding his podcast into television. If he hosts a show on a major network or gets a recurring role on a popular series before Season 35 casting begins, his odds would rise significantly.
Another factor is the show's recent trend of casting more digital-native talent. Past seasons included TikTok stars like Charli D'Amelio and Addison Rae, though both had significantly larger followings than Shane. If Shane's follower count grows substantially over the next year, the market could move toward 30-40%.
The biggest risk to the current price is simply time. With casting decisions likely 12-18 months away, the 21% price could be too low if Shane continues building his brand. But it could also drop to near zero if he fades from relevance.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
This prediction market asks whether Jake Shane, a social media personality known for his 'Passthatsuss' TikTok account, will appear as a contestant on Season 35 of the ABC dance competition series 'Dancing with the Stars' before January 1, 2027. Shane, born in 2002, has built a following of over 1.5 million on TikTok by posting humorous, often self-deprecating videos about his life, dating, and pop culture commentary. He has also expanded into podcasting with 'Therapuss,' a show where he discusses mental health and relationships. The question of his participation in DWTS S35 arises from the show's tendency to cast social media influencers alongside traditional celebrities, and from Shane's own hints and fan speculation about his potential involvement. Dancing with the Stars has been a staple of ABC's fall lineup since its 2005 premiere. The show pairs celebrities with professional dancers in a competition judged by a panel and voted on by the public. Season 35, which aired in fall 2023, featured a cast of 14 contestants including actors, athletes, and social media stars. The most recent social media influencer to compete was Lele Pons, a Vine and YouTube personality, who appeared in Season 27 (2018). Since then, the show has cast other digital creators like TikTok's Charli D'Amelio (Season 31, 2022), who was the first social media star to win the mirrorball trophy. This precedent makes Shane a plausible candidate for future seasons. Jake Shane has publicly expressed interest in joining the show. In a 2023 interview with 'Entertainment Weekly,' he said he would '100 percent' do DWTS if asked, citing his admiration for the show's production and his desire to challenge himself. He has also posted TikTok videos practicing dance moves and joking about his lack of coordination, which fans have interpreted as either serious preparation or ironic humor. As of early 2025, no official casting announcements have been made for Season 35, which would likely air in fall 2025 if it follows the typical schedule. However, ABC has not confirmed the show's renewal beyond Season 33 (2024), though it remains a strong ratings performer. The interest in this market reflects the broader trend of betting on entertainment outcomes, similar to predicting Oscar winners or reality show results. For fans and traders, the question combines two popular internet obsessions: the fate of beloved reality TV shows and the career trajectories of social media stars. If Shane were to appear, it would mark a significant crossover from digital fame to traditional broadcast television, a path increasingly common for influencers. The market also captures the uncertainty around DWTS's future, as network TV faces streaming competition and changing viewer habits. A 'yes' resolution would likely generate substantial media coverage and social media engagement, benefiting both Shane's brand and the show's ratings.
Historical Context
Dancing with the Stars premiered on ABC on June 1, 2005, and has since aired 33 seasons. The show's format involves celebrities paired with professional dancers competing in ballroom and Latin dance styles. Over its run, the show has featured a wide range of contestants: actors, athletes, musicians, politicians, and reality TV stars. The first season winner was General Hospital actor Kelly Monaco. The show's peak viewership came in its early years, with Season 5 (2007) averaging over 20 million viewers per episode. By Season 33 (2024), viewership had declined to around 5-6 million per episode, still respectable for network television but far from its heyday. The inclusion of social media influencers began in earnest in the late 2010s. The first major digital star to compete was YouTube personality Bethany Mota in Season 19 (2014). She was followed by Vine stars like Lele Pons (Season 27) and TikTok creators like Charli D'Amelio (Season 31). D'Amelio's win was a watershed moment, proving that online fame could translate to mainstream reality TV success. Since then, the show has continued to cast influencers, including TikTok's Gabby Windey (Season 31, second place) and Instagram model Alexis Warr (Season 32). The casting of influencers is partly a strategy to attract younger viewers, who are increasingly watching content on streaming and social platforms rather than traditional broadcast. Jake Shane's potential casting fits this historical pattern. He is part of a generation of TikTok creators who have built large followings by posting relatable, humorous content. Unlike earlier influencers who were primarily known for dance or comedy, Shane's persona is more conversational and personality-driven. If cast, he would join a roster of contestants that in recent seasons has included NFL player Jason Kelce, actress Xochitl Gomez, and singer Jason Mraz. The show's producers typically announce the full cast lineup in August or September, a few weeks before the season premiere in September. As of early 2025, no official casting for Season 35 has been announced, and the show's renewal beyond Season 33 is unconfirmed, though it remains a likely fixture on ABC's schedule.
Why It Matters
The outcome of this market matters for several reasons. First, it reflects the evolving nature of celebrity in the 2020s. Social media influencers like Jake Shane now command audiences comparable to traditional TV stars, and their inclusion on shows like DWTS validates their status as mainstream entertainers. If Shane appears, it would signal that TikTok fame alone is sufficient to secure a spot on one of television's longest-running reality competitions, potentially opening doors for other digital creators. Conversely, if he does not appear, it may indicate that the show's casting is becoming more conservative or that Shane's brand does not align with the show's current direction. Second, the market has implications for ABC's programming strategy. DWTS remains a reliable ratings performer for the network, but its audience is aging. Casting younger influencers is a deliberate attempt to attract Gen Z and younger millennial viewers who may not watch live TV otherwise. A successful season with a popular influencer could boost advertising revenue and streaming numbers on Disney+, where the show is also available. For Shane, appearing on DWTS would dramatically increase his visibility beyond TikTok, potentially leading to more brand deals, podcast sponsorships, and media opportunities. The show has launched or revived many careers, from singer Jordin Sparks to actress Zendaya, who parlayed her DWTS appearance into a major Hollywood career.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
