Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?
PM $25.6K
1
4
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?
PM $25.6K
1
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 50 at 48%.
Polymarket
- 5048%
- 2013%
- 104.5%
- 54.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $25.6K
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Will a coin launched in 2026 reach the top___?
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The source is a single Polymarket event titled "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?" [1]. The event contains four binary markets, each asking whether a coin launched in 2026 will end the year in a different top band: the top 50, top 20, top 10, and top 5 [1]. The supplied excerpt lists the provider status as active and gives a listed end time of 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the provider's listed close time, not a resolution. The excerpt does not include the full resolution criteria, so it does not establish how "top" is ranked or measured.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T14:48:22.110Z [1]. The prices below are from the observation time and are not live quotes:
- Top 50: Yes 0.485, No 0.515
- Top 20: Yes 0.17, No 0.83
- Top 10: Yes 0.075, No 0.925
- Top 5: Yes 0.0845, No 0.9155 [1]
Each market's Yes and No prices sum to 1 in this snapshot. The markets use different thresholds, so their prices answer different questions and should not be averaged or combined. The top 5 price is slightly higher than the top 10 price, which may look unexpected at first glance. Because the bands are different markets with separate wording, the snapshot alone does not show whether that ordering reflects a rules difference, a pricing difference, or rounding. Checking the full rules for each market is the appropriate next step. These are not arbitrage signals, since different contracts can have different terms and prices.
Coverage is complete for this event: four of four saved markets are included, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The selection note explains that markets were ordered by Yes price, then volume, and that counts describe the saved provider event rather than the full real-world field [1].
What remains uncertain
The excerpt does not show current prices, trading depth, or the number of participants, and volume is not a measure of liquidity [1]. It also does not explain why prices are where they are. The sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Readers should confirm the resolution rules and close time on the provider page before relying on any comparison.
References
- Polymarket: Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking whether a coin launched in 2026 will end the year within a top-ranked group. The event title leaves the rank threshold blank, and the saved provider event contains four separate markets at thresholds of top 5, top 10, top 20, and top 50 [1]. The event is categorized under Crypto, and its listed end time is 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [1]. The provider listed the event as active when it was observed [1]. An end time describes when the contract is set to close. It does not mean the question has resolved or that any outcome has been determined. Each market is a Yes or No contract on whether a coin launched in 2026 finishes the year inside its named threshold. The saved snapshot shows Yes prices of 0.485 for top 50, 0.17 for top 20, 0.0845 for top 5, and 0.075 for top 10 [1]. These are observed prices from one snapshot. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Volume and the number of traders are separate measures, and this entry does not use them to describe how deep or liquid the markets are. The saved event includes all four of its markets, so the sample is complete for this provider event. It does not show that every possible outcome has been listed, and the four thresholds should not be read as the full range of ranking possibilities. The evidence available here does not state which ranking metric defines the top positions, so readers should consult the official contract rules for those details.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a coin launched during 2026 places within a specified top group when the year ends, with each threshold listed as a separate Yes or No market [1]. Because the four markets use different cutoffs, their prices can differ without implying any mispricing. A higher cutoff naturally gives a more inclusive question, so its Yes price reflects a different event. The snapshot shows the top 50 Yes price at 0.485 and the top 5 Yes price at 0.0845 [1], which illustrates how the contract prices narrower and broader thresholds differently. Traders and readers can use the listed structure to see which questions the event asks, but the snapshot does not establish what the outcome will be.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the contract scheduled to close?
The provider lists an end time of 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z for the event and its markets [1]. A listed end time indicates the scheduled close. It is not a record that the contract has resolved.
Does the event include more than one market?
Yes. The saved provider event includes four markets with thresholds of top 5, top 10, top 20, and top 50 [1]. Each has its own Yes and No prices.
Are the listed prices probabilities?
No. The prices are observations from a single provider snapshot and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes [1].
Does a difference between thresholds show an arbitrage opportunity?
No. The markets ask different questions with different cutoffs, so differences in their prices do not on their own indicate an arbitrage opportunity [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.