US credit rating downgrade in 2026? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

Total Volume

$10.09K

Events

Markets

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US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

Vol

$10.09K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.09K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.09K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	46%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$10.09K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

In 2026 If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.62M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

46¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/jz4BHg" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US credit rating downgrade in 2026?"></iframe>

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US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

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Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)