Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

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Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

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7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?	Kalshi	26%
Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?	Kalshi	11%
Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?	Kalshi	11%
Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?	Kalshi	10%
Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?	Kalshi	10%
Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?	Kalshi	6%
Will Pat Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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26%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2028 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee selected by the Republican state convention counts. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee selected by the Republican state convention counts. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Zach Nunn wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee selec"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Pat Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

Volume$0.00

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

If Chuck Grassley wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee

KALSHI

Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

If Randy Feenstra wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee

KALSHI

Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

If Zach Nunn wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee selec

KALSHI

Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

If Kim Reynolds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee se

KALSHI

Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

If Matt Whitaker wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2028 Class III Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The nominee is the winner of the June 2028 Iowa Republican primary. If no candidate receives at least 35% of the primary vote, the nominee s

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Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

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Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

Markets (7)

Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Iowa Republican Senate nominee in 2028?

Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Chuck Grassley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Zach Nunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Kim Reynolds be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

Will Matt Whitaker be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Iowa?

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Discussion

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