Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHISports

Arias vs Cigarran

Total Volume

$584.99K

Events

Markets

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Arias vs Cigarran

Vol

$584.99K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $584.99K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $584.99K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Thiago Cigarran wins

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Thiago Cigarran wins	Kalshi	77%
Boris Arias wins	Kalshi	24%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$584.99K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Arias vs Cigarran (Oct 11) If X wins the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2 Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2 Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any oth

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Arias vs Cigarran
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Arias vs Cigarran (Oct 11)

If X wins the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2 Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2 Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any oth

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Thiago Cigarran wins the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2 Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The following market refers to the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $585.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Thiago Cigarran wins
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $216.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Boris Arias wins
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $368.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHISports

Arias vs Cigarran

Volume$584.99K

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Thiago Cigarran wins

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHISports

Thiago Cigarran wins

If Thiago Cigarran wins the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2 Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The following market refers to the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the

KALSHI

Boris Arias wins

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

KALSHISports

Boris Arias wins

If Boris Arias wins the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz 2 Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The following market refers to the Arias vs Cigarran professional tennis match in the 2026

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/k1lNDz" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Arias vs Cigarran"></iframe>

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Thiago Cigarran wins

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Events (1)

Arias vs Cigarran

Markets (2)

Thiago Cigarran wins

Thiago Cigarran wins

Boris Arias wins

Boris Arias wins

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Thiago Cigarran wins

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Arias vs Cigarran

Thiago Cigarran wins

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Boris Arias wins

Boris Arias wins

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