Who will be UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026?
PM $472.6K
1
11
Who will be UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026?
PM $472.6K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Petr Yan at 95.5%.
Polymarket
- Petr Yan95.5%
- Song Yadong2.1%
- Sean O'Malley2%
- Merab Dvalishvili0.1%
- Umar Nurmagomedov<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $472.6K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Bantamweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event asks who will be the UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026. The stated rule is that the market "will resolve according to the official UFC Bantamweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET" [1]. The rule also says that "Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count" [1]. If the belt is vacant at the check time, or there is no champion in the division, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1].
Each listed market is a separate yes or no contract on one named fighter. The provider lists a listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the provider's close time and does not match the 12:00 PM ET check time in the rule text. The evidence does not explain the difference, so readers should check the rule and the close time separately.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:07:03Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only and are not live quotes.
The Yes prices in this snapshot are: Petr Yan 0.62, Merab Dvalishvili 0.35, Sean O'Malley 0.026, Song Yadong 0.02, and seven fighters at 0.0005 each [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices together sum to about 1.02, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution.
Volume is not included in the evidence, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity or the number of traders.
The coverage record lists 11 markets, with all 11 included and no partial sample [1]. The sample warning says this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot includes no "Other" contract, so the price of "Other" cannot be read from this evidence. Lower prices on the listed fighters do not mean an omitted outcome is less likely.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it contains no recent news, trader counts, or forecasting track record. It also does not show whether another platform lists the same question with the same wording or close time. Contracts with different rules or close times should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity because their prices differ.
References
- Polymarket: Who will be UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks who will hold the official UFC Bantamweight championship on December 31, 2026. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves by the official UFC Bantamweight division champion at 12:00 PM ET on that date [1]. Only official division champions count, and interim champions do not [1]. The rules also cover a gap in the title. If the belt is vacant at the market's check time, or the division has no champion, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the UFC's athlete pages [1]. Under the rules, the check time is the deciding moment, so a champion who loses or wins the belt after that check does not change the outcome. The provider event lists 11 separate yes or no markets, one for each named fighter [1]. Each market asks whether that named person will be the champion on December 31, 2026. The saved event includes all 11 markets, and the provider's listed end time for each is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. That listed end time is a provider field and should not be read as the resolution check, which the rules set at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1]. The prices in this snapshot are yes and no values recorded at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and trading volume is not a measure of liquidity or of the number of participants.
Historical Context
The supplied sources do not give the history of the UFC Bantamweight division or its past champions. They do describe two UFC events that appear in the evidence. UFC Freedom 250 took place on June 14, 2026, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., and was named for the 250th anniversary of the United States Declaration of Independence [3]. UFC 334 is described as an upcoming event scheduled for November 14, 2026, at Madison Square Garden in New York City [2]. The sources do not link either event to the Bantamweight title, so they should not be read as title-related history.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the official status of one title on a single date. Because the rules count only official division champions and treat a vacant belt as "Other," the outcome depends on the UFC's official records at the check time, not on who is fighting or who is widely expected to hold the belt [1]. A reader therefore needs to read the rules closely, since a title change, an interim title, or a vacancy each affects how the contract resolves [1]. The market has 11 named fighter contracts in the saved event [1]. Each contract is judged on its own yes or no question. The prices for different names are snapshots at one moment and do not show a ranking that holds over time. Price differences between contracts do not by themselves create an arbitrage opportunity, because each contract has its own terms and the prices are not executable quotes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the market checked for the champion?
The rules say the market resolves according to the official UFC Bantamweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET [1].
Do interim champions count?
No. The rules say only official UFC division champions count and interim champions will not count [1].
What happens if the belt is vacant?
If the relevant belt is vacant at the check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the division, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Where does the market get its official information?
The rules name official information from the UFC, linked to its athlete pages, as the primary resolution source [1].
Does the listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z set the resolution check?
The provider lists that end time for each market [1]. The rules specify the check as 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1], so the rules text is the basis for how the market resolves.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.