Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?

Total Volume

$12.60K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?

Vol

$12.60K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $12.60K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.60K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will YES win the 2026 Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will YES win the 2026 Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$12.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2027 If Yes wins the Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero, then the market resolves to Yes. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No. This market may resolve

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If Yes wins the Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero, then the market resolves to Yes. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No.

This market may resolve

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Yes wins the Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, du"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will YES win the 2026 Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections