Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform3 EventsPolitics

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

Name: Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.23M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

Vol

$1.23M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $128.06K

Kalshi

markets · $1.10M

Price Spread

0.9%avg

max 0.9%

Price gaps

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.23M

90%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts"; listed deadline 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 15:34:43 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Massachusetts Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Massachusetts Governor Election Winner". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Related contracts	96%	95%	1%
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Related contracts	—	5%	—

Single-Platform Markets(9)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$1.23M

Volume

Markets

33.3%

Price Gap

About This Event

The 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes e

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Massachusetts Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Massachusetts pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Massachusetts pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rul"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.23M
* **Total Liquidity:** $213.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.75)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (12 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Republican party win the governorship in Massachusetts
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $901.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $69.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $777
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.4% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $197.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.2% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $42.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $598
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $743
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $889
  DATA: [Yes: 12.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 35%-40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $849
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 40% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $733
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 3 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Massachusetts Governor winner?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

KALSHIElections

Massachusetts Governor winner?

In 2026 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Massachusetts pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.

Volume$1.10M

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Massachusetts Governor Election Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have wi

Volume$112.21K

Markets2

11 of 11

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Related contracts

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 15:34:43 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average95.3%

Polymarket+0.9 pp

95.8%

Kalshi

94.8%

Difference:0.9 pp

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 95.8¢No 4.2¢

KKalshi

Yes 94.8¢No 5.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Massachusetts pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rul

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.0¢No 86.1¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 12.8¢No 87.2¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Largest saved gap: 2.4 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory

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Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Events (3)

Massachusetts Governor winner?

Massachusetts Governor Election Winner

Markets (2)

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Massachusetts Governor winner?

Massachusetts Governor Election Winner

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

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