Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHICommodities

How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

Total Volume

$25.18K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

Vol

$25.18K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $25.18K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.18K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

20 markets tracked

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	48%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	46%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	38%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $81.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $81.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $79.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $79.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $78.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $78.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $77.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $77.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $76.50 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $76.00 by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

48%

Top Probability

$25.18K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil, as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices, is below X between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?
**Category:** Commodities | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil, as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices, is below X between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $85.50 between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $965
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $725
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $81.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $81.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $854
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $990
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $951
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $79.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $79.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $78.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $615
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $78.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $702
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $77.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $786
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $77.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $709
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $76.50 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $76.00 by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $754
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHICommodities

How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume$25.18K

Markets20

20 of 20

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KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.0¢No 52.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $85.50 between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $85.00 between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $84.50 between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $84.00 between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $83.50 between Issuance and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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24¢

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How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

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Events (1)

How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

Markets (20)

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will WTI oil get by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84.00 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $83.50 by Oct 30, 2026?

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