$8.43K
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$8.43K
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G7 Leaders If the individual holding the title X time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes. The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves, not a successor. If a leader dies in office, all markets in the set settle at their last traded prices before the deat
Prediction markets currently assign a 42% probability that French President Emmanuel Macron will be the first G7 leader to leave office. This price, found exclusively on Kalshi with approximately $8,000 in total volume across the related markets, indicates the market views this outcome as plausible but not the most likely scenario. A 42% chance suggests Macron is seen as the frontrunner among the seven leaders to exit first, but the market remains highly uncertain, with no single outcome commanding a majority.
Macron's elevated odds are primarily driven by constitutional term limits and political vulnerability. Unlike several peers, Macron faces a hard deadline, he is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in the 2027 French presidential election. This creates a definitive, scheduled exit. Furthermore, his political standing has been challenged by significant domestic opposition, including protests over pension reforms and the strong performance of the far-right Rassemblement National in European Parliament elections. This combination of a fixed endpoint and current political fragility makes his early departure, whether via electoral loss or resignation under pressure, a tangible risk.
In contrast, other G7 leaders either have more flexible timelines or appear more secure. For instance, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida faces internal party pressure but no immediate term limit, while Germany's Olaf Scholz leads a coalition but is not required to call an election until 2025. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is trailing in polls but the next election must be held by January 2025, creating a later potential exit window than Macron's guaranteed 2027 departure.
The odds are most sensitive to unexpected political crises or electoral surprises. A poor result for Macron's party in the upcoming 2024 French Senate elections could intensify calls for his resignation, raising the probability. Conversely, a sudden collapse of a governing coalition in another G7 nation, such as Germany or Japan, could swiftly shift market focus and lower Macron's odds. The UK general election, expected in the second half of 2024, is a major catalyst, if the Conservative Party loses, Sunak would leave office immediately, potentially before any other leader. Markets will also monitor Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's stability, as Italy has a history of shorter-lived governments.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on identifying which current leader among the Group of Seven (G7) nations will be the first to leave their position. The G7 is an intergovernmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with the European Union as a non-enumerated member. The market specifically resolves based on which sitting head of government or state, as of the market's issuance date, is the first to permanently vacate their office through resignation, electoral defeat, term limit expiration, or other removal, excluding mere announcements of intent. The outcome requires the actual departure from office of the individual who held the position at issuance, not a successor. This market serves as a speculative gauge on political stability, leadership longevity, and electoral calendars across the world's major advanced economies. Interest stems from the significant global influence wielded by G7 leaders, whose tenures impact international diplomacy, economic policy coordination, and security alliances. Analysts and observers track factors like approval ratings, upcoming election schedules, domestic political challenges, and personal circumstances to assess each leader's vulnerability. The topic garners attention from political analysts, investors monitoring policy continuity, and those interested in geopolitical risk assessment.
Leadership transitions within the G7 have historically been driven by a mix of scheduled elections, term limits, and unexpected political upheavals. The forum itself, founded in 1975 as the G6, has witnessed numerous changes. For instance, Italy has had 31 different prime ministers since 1945, highlighting frequent political turnover, while Germany's chancellors have typically served longer terms, with Angela Merkel holding office for 16 years until 2021. The United Kingdom's fixed-term Parliament Act (repealed in 2022) previously set election cycles, but prime ministers like Theresa May and Boris Johnson still left office early due to internal party pressure. In Japan, prime ministerial tenures have often been short, with Shinzo Abe's long tenure from 2012 to 2020 being a notable exception amidst a history of frequent leadership changes. The 2022 period saw unusual volatility, with the UK having three prime ministers in one year (Johnson, Truss, Sunak), and Italy's Mario Draghi resigning in July 2022, leading to snap elections. These precedents demonstrate that while electoral calendars provide a framework, political scandal, coalition collapse, and internal party dynamics can precipitate earlier departures. The prediction market draws on this history of both predictable cycles and sudden shifts to assess current risks.
The tenure of G7 leaders has profound implications for global governance and economic stability. These nations collectively represent about 45% of global nominal GDP and are crucial in coordinating international responses to crises, from financial downturns to climate change and security threats. A change in leadership, especially an unexpected one, can lead to shifts in foreign policy, trade agreements, and defense commitments, creating uncertainty for allies and adversaries alike. Domestically, a leadership transition often signals a change in fiscal policy, regulatory approach, and legislative priorities, directly impacting businesses, financial markets, and citizens. For investors, political continuity in major economies reduces risk, while unexpected changes can trigger market volatility. The order in which leaders depart can also signal broader political trends, such as a wave of populism or a shift toward centrism, influencing political strategies worldwide. Furthermore, the mechanism of departure, whether through democratic election, resignation under pressure, or term limit, speaks to the health and stability of democratic institutions in these influential countries.
As of mid-2024, the political landscapes across the G7 show varying degrees of fragility. In Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is grappling with the severe aftermath of a party fundraising scandal, with public approval ratings for his cabinet languishing in the 20% range, fueling intense speculation about his survival in the upcoming LDP leadership election. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party continues to trail the Labour Party by over 20 points in national polling averages, making a defeat in the election required by January 2025 appear highly probable. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party is also trailing the opposition Conservatives, raising questions about his political future ahead of the 2025 election. Meanwhile, other leaders like Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Emmanuel Macron in France face different challenges, but their immediate departure timelines are less clearly defined by imminent electoral events.
According to the specific rules of this prediction market, if a leader dies in office, all contracts settle at their last traded price before the death. This rule is designed to prevent resolution based on such an unpredictable and tragic event, separating the market from morbidity speculation.
No. The market rules explicitly state that an announcement of resignation or an intention to leave is not sufficient for resolution. The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. The physical or legal transfer of power must be complete.
The market resolves to 'Yes' for that leader when they formally cease to hold the title and leave office. In most democratic systems, there is a defined handover date after an election loss. Resolution occurs on that handover date, not the election date itself.
If such an event forces the leader to immediately cease being head of government, for example by resigning or being dismissed by a head of state, and a new leader is appointed, the market would resolve to 'Yes' for the departing leader at the moment they lose the title.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will President of France be the first to leave office? | Kalshi | 42% |
Will Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be the first to leave office? | Kalshi | 37% |
Will Prime Minister of Japan be the first to leave office? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will Chancellor of Germany be the first to leave office? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will President of the United States be the first to leave office? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Prime Minister of Canada be the first to leave office? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Prime Minister of Italy be the first to leave office? | Kalshi | 2% |
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