GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

Name: Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$401.19

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

Vol

$401.19

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $401.19

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $401.19

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?	Poly	54%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$401.19

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (60 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $401
* **Total Liquidity:** $483
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.83)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics