Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?

Total Volume

$13.42K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?

Vol

$13.42K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.42K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.42K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announce its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announce its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027?	Kalshi	55%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

55%

Top Probability

$13.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Oct 1, 2027 If the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announces its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Oct 1, 2027

If the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announces its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announces its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) or its Board announce its award of the contract to construct the main span of the replacement Francis Scott Key Bridge to a named firm or team, under any contract structure or delivery method before Oct 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $13.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics