What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give Jeremiyah Love an 87% chance of being a top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe it is very likely, roughly a 9 in 10 chance, that he will be selected within the first ten picks. This shows a high degree of confidence in his draft stock nearly a year before the event.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors are driving this high probability. First, Love is a highly-touted running back who just transferred from Notre Dame to Miami for his junior season. He is widely considered one of the best players at his position for the 2025 college football season, which is the key audition for the 2026 draft.
Second, recent history supports elite running backs going early. In the 2024 draft, two running backs were selected in the top ten. While the position's value is often debated, exceptional talent still commands high picks. Love's combination of size, speed, and receiving ability fits the modern prototype for a first-round back. The market is betting his upcoming season at Miami will confirm this elite status.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The entire 2025 NCAA football season, starting late August, is the primary evaluation period. Love’s performance against top competition, especially in ACC play, will be critical. His health throughout the season is always a major variable.
After the season, the NFL Scouting Combine in late February 2026 and Miami's Pro Day in spring 2026 are the final major events. His measured speed, agility, and interviews with teams can solidify or hurt his position. The market odds will likely shift most dramatically based on his game film from September to December 2025.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets are generally decent at aggregating long-term sports prospects, but their accuracy improves as the event gets closer. For the NFL draft, early forecasts a year out can be volatile. A major injury during the 2025 season would instantly collapse these odds. Conversely, a Heisman-caliber season could push them even higher. These markets are a snapshot of current informed sentiment, which still has time to change based on real-world events.
