Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

Name: Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$39.37K

Events

Markets

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Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

Vol

$39.37K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $39.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $39.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

18 markets tracked

Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(18)

Market	Platform	Price
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Poly	35%
Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	14%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	14%
Will Talya Lankri be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	12%
Will Matan Kahana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	11%
Will Ofer Winter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	9%
Will Yoav Segalovich be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	4%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	3%
Will Elazar Stern be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	3%
Will Meirav Ben-Ari be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	2%
Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	1%
Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	1%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	1%
Will Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper) be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	0%
Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	0%
Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	0%
Will Ram Ben-Barak be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$39.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Onc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (141 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Onc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that go"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $39.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $349.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $731
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $897
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $806
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Ofer Winter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Matan Kahana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Elazar Stern be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Yoav Segalovich be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $417
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $229
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Meirav Ben-Ari be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Ram Ben-Barak be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $147
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper) be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Talya Lankri be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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