Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory

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Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?	Kalshi	97%
Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?	Kalshi	96%
Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?	Kalshi	84%
Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?	Kalshi	49%
Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?	Kalshi	16%
Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 30%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 35%?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes, counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid ballots, received by Iliana Yotova minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Iliana Yotova if Iliana Yotova wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Iliana Yotova los

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 25, 2026

If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes, counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid ballots, received by Iliana Yotova minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Iliana Yotova if Iliana Yotova wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Iliana Yotova los

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid ba"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 35%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid ba

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?

If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid b

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?

If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid b

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?

If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above 20%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid b

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?

If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above 25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid b

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/keXXNd" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory"></iframe>

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Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

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Events (1)

Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory

Markets (7)

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?

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Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?

Will the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election be at least 25%?

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