Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Name: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.05M

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Markets

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $7.05M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.05M

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$7.05M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict wil

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (13 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict wil

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the agreement is officially reac"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.05M
* **Total Liquidity:** $303.1K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 23.26)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $7.05M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

12d 14h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

1¢

Polymarket

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)