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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Quebec General Election Winner

Name: Quebec General Election Winner
End: 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$458.49K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Quebec General Election Winner

Vol

$458.49K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $458.49K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $458.49K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Poly	57%
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Poly	36%
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Poly	9%
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Poly	0%
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Poly	0%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$458.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this ma

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Quebec General Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 5, 2026 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this ma

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If vot"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $458.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $82.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.58)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $49.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $107.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $50.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $148.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $49.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $53.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld