What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give about a 10% chance that the United States will adopt permanent Daylight Saving Time by the start of 2027. In simpler terms, traders see roughly a 1 in 10 chance of this law passing. This shows a very low level of confidence that the current system of changing clocks twice a year will end soon, despite public discussion about it.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The low probability stems from a few clear obstacles. First, while the Senate unanimously passed the Sunshine Protection Act in 2022 to make Daylight Saving Time permanent, the bill stalled in the House of Representatives and never received a vote. This revealed a significant gap between symbolic support and actual lawmaking.

Second, there is no strong consensus on which time to lock in. The debate isn't just about stopping clock changes, but about choosing between permanent Standard Time or permanent Daylight Saving Time. Sleep experts and some states favor permanent Standard Time for better alignment with natural sunlight, especially in winter. This disagreement creates a political deadlock.

Finally, making a national change is a low legislative priority compared to issues like government funding or national security. Without a coordinated push from leadership or a clear public mandate, the issue tends to fade until the bi-annual clock change prompts another short-lived news cycle.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event to watch is the start of each new session of Congress. Any reintroduction of the Sunshine Protection Act or a similar bill would be the first signal of renewed effort. Committee hearings in the House Energy and Commerce Committee would be a concrete step forward.

Outside of Congress, state-level actions could apply pressure. Federal law currently allows states to adopt permanent Standard Time without approval, but they need Congress to act for permanent Daylight Saving Time. If more states like Arizona and Hawaii, which already stay on Standard Time, or if a large state like California were to formally petition Congress, it could reignite the national debate.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally reliable at gauging the likelihood of legislative action, especially when a bill has clear momentum or opposition. Their track record on long-shot bills that are popular in concept but stuck in process is decent. The 10% chance likely captures the real scenario: the idea has supporters, but the path to a presidential signature is blocked by political inertia and substantive disagreement. The main limitation is that a single determined lawmaker could suddenly attach the measure to a must-pass bill, which is a rare but possible event not fully priced into a slow-moving market.