$148.55K
1
11
$148.55K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market
Prediction markets currently assign a 64% probability that Solana (SOL) will trade between $140 and $150 on January 16, 2026. This price, approximately $0.64 on Polymarket, indicates the market sees this outcome as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty. The remaining 36% is distributed across other price brackets, with notable interest in the adjacent $130-$140 and $150-$160 ranges. Trading volume is relatively thin at $78,000, suggesting this consensus could be sensitive to new information.
Two primary factors are shaping this moderate confidence in a $140-$150 range. First, Solana's current price action and technical structure are consolidating near the middle of its recent trading channel, with $145 acting as a focal point for equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces. Second, the broader crypto market sentiment is in a holding pattern ahead of key macroeconomic data, limiting expectations for a sharp SOL breakout or breakdown in the immediate term. The one-day resolution horizon inherently caps volatility expectations, compressing the probable price into a defined range.
The odds are highly sensitive to any catalyst that disrupts the current market balance. A decisive move above the $150 resistance level or below the $140 support before the resolution time could trigger a rapid repricing. The immediate catalyst is the specific Binance SOL/USDT candle at noon ET on January 16. Unexpected news regarding Solana network performance, a major shift in Bitcoin's price, or sudden regulatory announcements could also cause significant probability shifts in the final hours of trading. Given the thin liquidity, a large trade could itself move the market odds substantially.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the future price of Solana (SOL), a major cryptocurrency, specifically its value at noon Eastern Time on January 16, as determined by the closing price of a one-minute SOL/USDT trading candle on the Binance exchange. Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events, with this market focusing on a precise, time-stamped financial metric. The resolution mechanism is explicitly defined, using Binance as the authoritative data source to ensure transparency and minimize ambiguity in settlement. Such markets serve as collective intelligence tools, aggregating diverse opinions into a probabilistic forecast of Solana's short-term price movement. Interest in this specific date stems from traders and analysts monitoring seasonal patterns, upcoming project developments, or macroeconomic events that could influence cryptocurrency valuations in mid-January. The focus on Solana reflects its position as a leading layer-1 blockchain known for high throughput and low transaction costs, making its price a key indicator of sentiment in the broader altcoin market. Participants use these markets to hedge risk, speculate on price direction, or gain insight into market expectations ahead of potential volatility.
Solana launched in March 2020, with its native token, SOL, trading below $1. It experienced a meteoric rise during the 2021 bull market, reaching an all-time high of approximately $260 in November 2021, driven by hype around its high-speed, low-cost transactions and a booming NFT and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. This period established Solana as a primary competitor to Ethereum. However, the network faced significant challenges in 2022, including multiple major outages that undermined its reliability narrative and its deep entanglement with the collapse of the FTX exchange and Alameda Research in November 2022. FTX and Alameda were major holders and promoters of SOL, and their bankruptcy led to a massive sell-off, with SOL's price plummeting to around $8 by the end of 2022. The year 2023 marked a strong recovery, often termed the 'Solana Renaissance,' characterized by improved network stability, the viral success of meme coins like BONK, and a resurgence in developer activity. This recovery set the stage for its performance entering 2024, making its January price a point of keen observation to see if the recovery momentum can be sustained.
The price of Solana on a specific date matters because it acts as a barometer for the health and sentiment of the broader altcoin ecosystem. As a leading smart contract platform, SOL's performance relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum signals where developer and investor capital is flowing within the cryptocurrency sector. A strong price can indicate confidence in Solana's technological roadmap and its ability to capture market share in areas like decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) and consumer crypto applications. Conversely, weakness could signal concerns over competition, technical hurdles, or regulatory pressures. For participants in the prediction market, the outcome provides actionable financial intelligence. More broadly, the accuracy of such crowd-sourced price forecasts can inform our understanding of market efficiency and collective reasoning in the digital asset space, which remains a subject of significant academic and practical interest.
As of late 2023 and early 2024, Solana has demonstrated a remarkable recovery from its 2022 lows, with its price consolidating at significantly higher levels. The ecosystem has seen a surge in activity, particularly in meme coins and consumer-oriented applications like the Saga phone. Network performance has been stable with no major outages reported recently, addressing a key historical concern. Market attention is divided between bullish catalysts, such as continued growth in its DePIN sector and potential spot ETF developments for crypto, and bearish macro risks including persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty that could tighten financial conditions.
Solana's price is determined by supply and demand on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance. Key factors include overall crypto market sentiment, network adoption metrics (like daily active addresses and TVL), technological developments and upgrades, competition from other blockchains, and broader macroeconomic conditions influencing risk assets.
The market resolves to the 'Close' price of the one-minute SOL/USDT trading candle that completes at exactly 12:00 noon Eastern Time on January 16 on the Binance exchange. This is a single, timestamped data point from the world's largest crypto exchange by volume, chosen for its liquidity and reliability.
SOL is the native cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain, used for paying transaction fees and staking. USDT (Tether) is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, designed to maintain a value of $1. The SOL/USDT trading pair shows how many USDT are needed to buy one SOL.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on a specific outcome (the price at a precise moment) without owning the underlying asset. This can be used for pure speculation on price direction, hedging an existing SOL position, or gaining insight into the market's collective forecast for that point in time.
The market rules specify that if the reported value from the defined source is unavailable or the event cannot be determined, the market will resolve to 'No.' This underscores the importance of the exchange's operational reliability for the contract's validity.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 89% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ko1Pxx" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Solana price on January 16?"></iframe>