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$2.57K
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the
Prediction markets are pricing in near-certainty that the CME Crude Oil (CL) active futures contract will settle above $42 per barrel on January 31, 2026. The leading market on Polymarket trades at 95 cents, implying a 95% probability of a "Yes" outcome. This extreme confidence suggests traders view a settlement below this threshold as a remote tail risk, not a plausible base case. It is critical to note, however, that this market exhibits thin liquidity, with only $3,000 in volume spread across 12 similar price-point markets, which can sometimes exaggerate price moves.
The primary factor is the current fundamental price floor for global crude oil. As of mid-January 2026, front-month WTI futures trade above $70 per barrel, placing the $42 target approximately 40% below the spot market. This massive discount to current trading makes a collapse to that level within two weeks highly improbable barring a black swan event. Historically, even during periods of severe demand shock, such as the early COVID-19 pandemic, prices have rarely sustained such precipitous short-term drops without a clear, immediate catalyst.
Secondly, the market structure itself provides technical support. The $42 level is far below any recent technical support zones and is closer to prices last seen in the mid-2010s, ignoring inflation. With global inventories relatively tight and OPEC+ maintaining production discipline, there is no visible fundamental driver for such a crash in the immediate term.
Given the 95% probability, only a catastrophic, unforeseen event could materially shift these odds. A potential catalyst would be a sudden, coordinated announcement of a massive release from global strategic petroleum reserves, far exceeding historical interventions. A major geopolitical de-escalation in multiple oil-producing regions simultaneously could also trigger a supply surge. However, the short 17-day window until resolution makes such coordinated policy action or dramatic peace breakthroughs logistically and politically unlikely. The most plausible path to a "No" outcome would be a major exchange or settlement failure, which is itself an extreme outlier event. Traders should monitor weekly EIA inventory reports and any emergency OPEC+ communications for signs of unprecedented market shifts.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the future price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, specifically whether the official settlement price for the active month futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will be above a specified threshold at the end of January 2026. The CME's WTI crude oil futures, traded under the symbol CL, serve as the global benchmark for oil pricing, influencing everything from gasoline costs to national economic policies. The market resolves based on the settlement price on the final trading day of the month, a critical data point used by physical oil traders, financial institutions, and governments worldwide. Interest in this forward-looking price stems from its role as a barometer for global economic health, geopolitical stability, and energy transition progress, making it one of the most closely watched commodities. Recent years have seen unprecedented volatility, driven by OPEC+ production decisions, the war in Ukraine, post-pandemic demand recovery, and shifting energy policies, creating significant uncertainty for the 2026 price horizon. Traders and analysts monitor this contract to hedge risk, speculate on price movements, and gain insights into long-term energy market trends.
The modern crude oil futures market originated with the launch of the WTI contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1983, providing a financial tool for price risk management. This established WTI as a key global benchmark alongside Brent crude. The period from 2003 to 2014 is often called the 'commodities supercycle,' where prices rose from around $30 per barrel to a peak above $140 in 2008, driven by rapid demand growth from China and other emerging economies, before collapsing during the global financial crisis. A significant historical precedent for price volatility occurred in April 2020, when the May 2020 WTI futures contract settled at negative $37.63 per barrel due to a catastrophic collapse in demand from COVID-19 lockdowns and a lack of available storage. This event underscored the critical importance of physical market logistics and storage capacity in futures pricing. The price subsequently recovered, surpassing $120 per barrel in June 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered sanctions and fears of a massive supply disruption. These extreme swings demonstrate the market's sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, macroeconomic trends, and sudden changes in supply-demand balances, providing essential context for assessing potential price levels in 2026.
The price of crude oil is a fundamental input for the global economy, directly affecting the cost of transportation, manufacturing, and heating. A price above a certain threshold in early 2026 would signal sustained inflationary pressures, impacting consumer spending power and central bank monetary policies worldwide. It would also generate significant revenue windfalls for oil-exporting nations and companies, while straining the budgets of net-importing countries. Beyond immediate economics, the price level is a key indicator of the world's progress in the energy transition. Persistently high prices could accelerate investment in renewable energy and electric vehicles, while lower prices might slow the shift away from fossil fuels. The outcome influences trillions of dollars in investment decisions across the energy sector, national strategic planning for energy security, and the geopolitical leverage of major producers. Ultimately, the January 2026 price serves as a snapshot of the complex interplay between traditional energy markets and the forces of technological and policy change.
As of late 2024, the crude oil market is characterized by significant uncertainty. Prices have moderated from 2022 highs but remain volatile, caught between OPEC+ production cuts designed to support prices and concerns over slowing global economic growth dampening demand. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and related disruptions to shipping continue to pose upside risks. Concurrently, record production from non-OPEC countries like the United States, Guyana, and Brazil is adding to supply. The market is closely watching for signals on the timing of interest rate cuts from major central banks, as this will affect economic growth and currency values, which in turn influence oil demand and dollar-denominated prices. These competing forces create a complex backdrop for forecasting the price two years into the future.
The CME settlement price is the official daily closing price for a futures contract, determined by a specific calculation period of trading activity at the end of the session. It is the benchmark price used for physical oil transactions, marking portfolios to market, and resolving derivative contracts like this prediction market.
Key factors include OPEC+ production decisions, global economic growth rates affecting demand, geopolitical events that disrupt supply, inventory levels, the value of the U.S. dollar, and developments in alternative energy technologies. Weather events and refinery capacity also play significant short-term roles.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is a lighter, sweeter crude primarily produced in the U.S. and priced at Cushing, Oklahoma. Brent is a blend from North Sea fields and serves as the benchmark for waterborne crude in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. The price difference, or spread, reflects transportation costs and regional supply-demand balances.
The shift toward electric vehicles and renewable energy is expected to eventually reduce growth in oil demand, potentially capping long-term price increases. However, near-term prices are more sensitive to current investment levels in oil production; if investment falls too quickly due to transition policies, it could lead to supply shortfalls and price spikes before demand declines.
Upon expiration, holders of the contract must either settle financially (cash settlement for some contracts) or, for physical delivery contracts like WTI, make or take delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil at the designated location in Cushing, Oklahoma. Most traders close or roll their positions before expiration to avoid physical delivery.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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12 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 95% |
| Poly | 95% |
| Poly | 92% |
| Poly | 91% |
| Poly | 73% |
| Poly | 72% |
| Poly | 72% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 48% |
| Poly | 2% |
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