Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?

Name: #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
End: 2026-10-16T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.38K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?

Vol

$2.38K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.38K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.38K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Poly	87%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Poly	14%
Will Be My Eyes be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Poly	1%
Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Poly	1%
Will Trump Accounts: Official App be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$2.38K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 16, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.40)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $151
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump Accounts: Official App be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $390
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Be My Eyes be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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