What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give the war film One Battle After Another roughly a 1 in 3 chance of winning exactly six Oscars at the upcoming 98th Academy Awards. This is the most likely single outcome among the many possibilities being traded, but it is not a confident forecast. The odds suggest traders see a wide range of possible results, from a modest haul to a major sweep. With about $86,000 wagered across 22 different questions on sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, there is active interest but not a clear consensus, as traders on different platforms disagree by several percentage points.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The mixed forecast stems from the film’s profile and the competitive field. One Battle After Another is a large-scale historical drama, a genre that often performs well in technical categories like Sound, Visual Effects, and Editing. However, these same films sometimes struggle to win the top awards for acting or directing against more intimate, performer-driven stories.

Recent guild awards, which are strong Oscar indicators, have not shown a clear dominance by any single film this season. This has created uncertainty. Historically, a frontrunner often emerges by now, but the split results so far make it hard to predict a precise number of wins for any movie. The market’s leading prediction of six wins likely balances the film’s strength in below-the-line categories with an assumption it will fall short in some of the major races.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The most important event is the Oscar ceremony itself, which will be held in about 21 days. Before that, the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) will be presented. BAFTA voters overlap with the Academy, so their choices can signal last-minute shifts in momentum. Any major film industry guild announcing its winners, particularly the Directors Guild or Producers Guild, could also change the odds. A clean sweep by One Battle After Another at these precursors would likely increase predictions for a higher Oscar total, while losses would decrease them.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a decent track record forecasting Oscar winners, often outperforming expert pundits. They are particularly good at aggregating information about frontrunners in individual categories. However, predicting an exact number of wins for a single film is harder. It requires correctly guessing outcomes across many separate, volatile races. The current low probability for any single outcome (like 33% for six wins) and the disagreement between platforms reflect this difficulty. These markets are a useful snapshot of collective belief, but for a precise tally, they show just how uncertain this Oscar race remains.