Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?

Total Volume

$888.14

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When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?

Vol

$888.14

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $888.14

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $888.14

100%

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10 markets tracked

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?	Kalshi	96%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?	Kalshi	92%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?	Kalshi	91%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?	Kalshi	90%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?	Kalshi	71%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?	Kalshi	51%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?	Kalshi	41%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$888.14

Volume

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 election If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms, main website, television broadcast, or official social m

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026 election

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms, main website, television broadcast, or official social m

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $888
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 14, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $346
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $217
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?

Volume$888.14

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KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, o

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, o

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win,

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, o

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, o

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When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?

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Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

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Events (1)

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?

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Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?

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Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026?

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