Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Scottish independence referendum called?

Total Volume

$24.40K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Scottish independence referendum called?

Vol

$24.40K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $24.40K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.40K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
New Scottish referendum called before 2030?	Kalshi	26%
New Scottish referendum called before 2029?	Kalshi	11%
New Scottish referendum called before 2028?	Kalshi	7%
New Scottish referendum called before 2027?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$24.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2027 If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Scottish independence referendum called?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. New Scottish referendum called before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. New Scottish referendum called before 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. New Scottish referendum called before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. New Scottish referendum called before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $24.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Scottish independence referendum called?

Volume$24.40K

Markets4

4 of 4

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KALSHI

New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIOther

New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

New Scottish referendum called before 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIOther

New Scottish referendum called before 2029?

If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

New Scottish referendum called before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIOther

New Scottish referendum called before 2028?

If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

New Scottish referendum called before 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.2¢No 94.8¢

KALSHIOther

New Scottish referendum called before 2027?

If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/kyv64H" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Scottish independence referendum called?"></iframe>

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Scottish independence referendum called?

Scottish independence referendum called?

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New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

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Events (1)

Scottish independence referendum called?

Markets (4)

New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

New Scottish referendum called before 2029?

New Scottish referendum called before 2029?

New Scottish referendum called before 2028?

New Scottish referendum called before 2028?

New Scottish referendum called before 2027?

New Scottish referendum called before 2027?

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New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Scottish independence referendum called?

New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

New Scottish referendum called before 2030?

New Scottish referendum called before 2029?

New Scottish referendum called before 2029?

New Scottish referendum called before 2028?

New Scottish referendum called before 2028?

New Scottish referendum called before 2027?

New Scottish referendum called before 2027?

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