This prediction market topic focuses on quantifying the volume of executive orders that former President Donald Trump would sign during a potential second term in office. Executive orders are presidential directives that carry the force of law, used to manage operations of the federal government. The market specifically resolves based on a defined threshold, counting only documents formally titled 'Executive Order' followed by a sequential number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. This excludes other executive actions like memoranda or proclamations. The topic has gained significant attention as analysts and political observers attempt to forecast the administrative style and policy priorities of a potential second Trump administration. Interest stems from Trump's first-term record of using executive orders to implement policy unilaterally, particularly in areas like immigration, regulation, and trade, often bypassing congressional gridlock. Recent developments, including policy proposals from Trump-aligned groups like Project 2025, suggest plans for a more systematic and aggressive use of executive power to reshape the federal bureaucracy and advance conservative priorities. This makes predicting the volume of executive orders a proxy for understanding the scope and pace of potential executive action.

Historical Context

The use of executive orders has a long history, but their volume and political significance have fluctuated. Modern precedent is critical. President Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record, signing 3,721 orders over 12 years, often to implement New Deal policies. In recent decades, averages have varied. President George W. Bush signed 291 orders over eight years, while President Barack Obama signed 276. President Trump's 220 orders in one term placed him on a higher annual pace than his immediate predecessors. The legal basis for executive orders stems from the President's constitutional authority as head of the executive branch and 'chief executive,' as well as from congressional delegations of power. However, their scope is limited. The landmark Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer decision in 1952 struck down President Harry Truman's executive order seizing steel mills, establishing that orders cannot usurp legislative power. This historical tension between presidential initiative and legislative/judicial constraint directly informs predictions about a second Trump term. His first-term experience with legal challenges may shape the drafting and volume of future orders.

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