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$12.40K
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12
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Trump's second term If the President signs X Y Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Execut
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on quantifying the volume of executive orders that former President Donald Trump would sign during a potential second term in office. Executive orders are presidential directives that carry the force of law, used to manage operations of the federal government. The market specifically resolves based on a defined threshold, counting only documents formally titled 'Executive Order' followed by a sequential number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. This excludes other executive actions like memoranda or proclamations. The topic has gained significant attention as analysts and political observers attempt to forecast the administrative style and policy priorities of a potential second Trump administration. Interest stems from Trump's first-term record of using executive orders to implement policy unilaterally, particularly in areas like immigration, regulation, and trade, often bypassing congressional gridlock. Recent developments, including policy proposals from Trump-aligned groups like Project 2025, suggest plans for a more systematic and aggressive use of executive power to reshape the federal bureaucracy and advance conservative priorities. This makes predicting the volume of executive orders a proxy for understanding the scope and pace of potential executive action.
The use of executive orders has a long history, but their volume and political significance have fluctuated. Modern precedent is critical. President Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record, signing 3,721 orders over 12 years, often to implement New Deal policies. In recent decades, averages have varied. President George W. Bush signed 291 orders over eight years, while President Barack Obama signed 276. President Trump's 220 orders in one term placed him on a higher annual pace than his immediate predecessors. The legal basis for executive orders stems from the President's constitutional authority as head of the executive branch and 'chief executive,' as well as from congressional delegations of power. However, their scope is limited. The landmark Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer decision in 1952 struck down President Harry Truman's executive order seizing steel mills, establishing that orders cannot usurp legislative power. This historical tension between presidential initiative and legislative/judicial constraint directly informs predictions about a second Trump term. His first-term experience with legal challenges may shape the drafting and volume of future orders.
The number of executive orders signed is a key indicator of governance style and political strategy. A high volume would signal a presidency prioritizing immediate, unilateral action over legislative compromise, potentially leading to rapid policy shifts in areas like environmental regulation, immigration enforcement, and federal hiring. This has direct consequences for businesses, which face changing regulatory landscapes, and for millions of individuals whose legal status or access to benefits could be altered by executive fiat. Furthermore, it matters for the balance of power. Heavy reliance on executive orders often provokes intense legal battles, straining the judicial system and deepening political polarization. It can also lead to policy instability, as subsequent administrations can revoke orders with the stroke of a pen, creating a cycle of regulatory whiplash. The durability of any policy changes achieved through this method is inherently fragile compared to legislation.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November presidential election. Polls show a competitive race against incumbent President Joe Biden. The political landscape is defined by preparation. The Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 has been published and is actively promoted, providing a clear roadmap for executive action. Trump and his advisors have publicly emphasized plans to use executive power vigorously on day one, specifically mentioning orders related to immigration, energy production, and civil service reform. The outcome of the election will determine if this predictive market becomes active.
Both are presidential directives, but an executive order is more formal. By tradition and law, executive orders are numbered, published in the Federal Register, and generally used for significant policy actions affecting the public. Presidential memoranda are often used for internal executive branch management and are not always published. For this prediction market, only numbered executive orders count.
Yes, but it is difficult. Congress can pass legislation to override an executive order, but such a bill would be subject to a presidential veto, requiring a two-thirds majority in both chambers to overturn. More commonly, Congress uses its power of the purse to restrict funding for the implementation of specific orders.
Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the most executive orders, with 3,721 over his 12-year presidency. This was due to the Great Depression and World War II. In the modern era, since World War II, the counts have been significantly lower, typically ranging from the low 200s to low 300s per two-term presidency.
President Joe Biden signed 77 executive orders in his first year in office (2021). This was a high number, largely focused on reversing Trump-era policies on climate, immigration, and the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating how a new administration can use this tool for rapid change.
One of the most consequential and controversial was Executive Order 13769, titled 'Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States,' commonly known as the 'Travel Ban' or 'Muslim Ban.' It restricted entry from several Muslim-majority countries and faced immediate legal challenges, eventually being upheld by the Supreme Court in a revised form.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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12 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 22% |
Will the President sign more than 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 17% |
Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will the President sign between 700 and 749 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will the President sign between 650 and 699 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 4% |
Will the President sign between 750 and 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? | Kalshi | 4% |
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