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How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

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How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

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12 markets tracked

Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	15%
Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	14%
Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	13%
Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	11%
Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	8%
Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	7%
Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	6%
Will the President sign between 650 and 699 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	5%
Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	5%
Will the President sign between 700 and 749 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	4%
Will the President sign more than 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	4%
Will the President sign between 750 and 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

Trump's second term If the President signs X Y Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Execut

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Trump's second term

If the President signs X Y Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Execut

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President signs above 800 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Procl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the President sign more than 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the President sign between 750 and 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the President sign between 700 and 749 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the President sign between 650 and 699 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.1% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

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KALSHI

Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

If the President signs between 400 to 449 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoran

KALSHI

Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

If the President signs between 350 to 399 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoran

KALSHI

Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

If the President signs between 450 to 499 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoran

KALSHI

Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.1¢No 88.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

If the President signs between 500 to 549 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoran

KALSHI

Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.8¢No 92.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

If the President signs below 300 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Procl

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How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

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Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

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Events (1)

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Markets (12)

Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

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Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?

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