Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

Name: How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
End: 2026-11-04T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.51K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

Vol

$11.51K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.51K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will more than 550,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will more than 550,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Poly	99%
Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Poly	97%
Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Poly	27%
Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Poly	8%
Will more than 595,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Poly	8%
Will more than 650,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Poly	1%
Will more than 625,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$11.51K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chinook" Adult Passage Annual Count at Bonneville Dam from January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, exceeds the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Each market in this event will resolve independently, and any number of these markets, including all or none, may resolve to "Yes". The qualifying data is the Adult Passage Annual Count for Bonneville Dam for the date range January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM E

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chinook" Adult Passage Annual Count at Bonneville Dam from January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, exceeds the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Each market in this event will resolve independently, and any number of these markets, including all or none, may resolve to "Yes".

The qualifying data is the Adult Passage Annual Count for Bonneville Dam for the date range January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM E

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chinook" Adult Passage Annual Count at Bonneville Dam from January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, exceeds the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Each market in this event will resolve independently, and any number of these"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.98)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will more than 550,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will more than 650,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will more than 625,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $984
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will more than 585,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will more than 595,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $564
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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