Name: Will Rolex prices hit __ by April 30?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Will Rolex prices hit __ by April 30? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $135.02K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $135.02K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the Rolex Index hit $11,750 (LOW) by April 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,750 (LOW) by April 30?	Poly	6%
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,650 (HIGH) by April 30?	Poly	5%
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,550 (HIGH) by April 30?	Poly	4%
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30?	Poly	3%
Will the Rolex Index hit $13,150 (HIGH) by April 30?	Poly	0%
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,950 (LOW) by April 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

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Top Probability

$135.02K

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About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the displa

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Rolex prices hit __ by April 30?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. 

This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the displa

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $87.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.6K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 33.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Rolex Index hit $12,650 (HIGH) by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Rolex Index hit $11,950 (LOW) by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Rolex Index hit $11,750 (LOW) by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Rolex Index hit $13,150 (HIGH) by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $65.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Rolex Index hit $12,550 (HIGH) by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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