$47.60K
1
20
$47.60K
1
20
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has been nominated for Music, Original Score, at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in near-certainty for a Best Actor nomination at the 98th Academy Awards, with the leading contract for Timothée Chalamet trading at 100% on Polymarket. This price indicates the market views his nomination as virtually assured. Across 44 markets tracking various contenders, total volume exceeds $3.6 million, demonstrating high liquidity and significant trader conviction. The cross-platform spread shows Polymarket pricing consistently 4.0% higher than Kalshi for equivalent contracts, suggesting platform-specific risk assessments or liquidity differences.
The extreme confidence in Chalamet's nomination is driven by two concrete factors. First, his starring role in the upcoming blockbuster Dune: Part Three, scheduled for a late 2025 release, positions him perfectly within the Academy's nomination window. The previous Dune films earned widespread critical acclaim and multiple Oscars, establishing the franchise as awards-worthy. Second, Chalamet is considered overdue for a Best Actor nomination after previous recognition in the Best Actor category for Call Me by Your Name and sustained critical praise for his recent performances. The market is pricing in the combination of a high-profile vehicle and industry narrative.
While the market sees minimal risk, the primary catalyst that could alter the odds is the actual critical and guild reception to Dune: Part Three upon its release in November 2025. If the film underperforms artistically or Chalamet's performance is overshadowed by a co-star or a breakout performance from another actor in a late-year release, the perceived certainty could erode. The nominations announcement on January 22, 2026, is the final resolution. A surprise snub, though considered highly unlikely by the market, would result in a total contract collapse from 100% to 0%.
The consistent 4.0% price differential, with Polymarket higher than Kalshi, presents a clear arbitrage opportunity for traders able to operate on both platforms. This spread likely persists due to differences in trader demographics and platform accessibility, with Polymarket's crypto-native user base potentially exhibiting greater risk tolerance or stronger conviction in entertainment markets. The high liquidity across both platforms, however, indicates efficient price discovery overall, with the spread representing a persistent, but narrow, gap in market consensus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific musical artist or composition, designated as 'X', will receive a nomination for Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards. The Academy Award for Best Original Song honors songs written specifically for a motion picture, with the nomination process conducted by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The 98th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for early 2026, with nominations typically announced in late January of that year. This market resolves to 'Yes' if X is among the nominees announced for that category. Interest in this market stems from the competitive and high-profile nature of the Oscars, where a nomination can significantly boost a songwriter's career, a film's commercial performance, and the cultural footprint of the song itself. The outcome depends on the votes of the Academy's Music Branch members, who evaluate eligible submissions based on criteria including effectiveness, craftsmanship, and relevance to the film. Recent trends show the category often features songs from major studio releases, animated films, and documentaries, with winners frequently becoming chart-topping hits. Analysts and fans closely watch precursor awards like the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, and various guild awards for indicators of Oscar momentum.
The Academy Award for Best Original Song was first presented at the 7th Academy Awards in 1934, with 'The Continental' from 'The Gay Divorcee' winning. For decades, the category was dominated by songs from major Hollywood musicals. A significant shift occurred in the 1990s, when pop and rock artists like Bruce Springsteen, Phil Collins, and A.R. Rahman began winning for mainstream films, broadening the category's musical scope. The rules have evolved, notably in 2008 when the Academy changed the voting system to a preferential ballot for nominations and required that a song must be 'substantially heard' in the film or used as the first song in the end credits. A major precedent was set in 2020 when 'Joker' composer Hildur Guðnadóttir won Best Original Score, and the film's song 'Bathroom Dance' was not submitted, highlighting strategic decisions by studios about which songs to campaign. The 2023 ceremony saw a rule change allowing all Academy members to vote in the final round for Best Original Song, not just the Music Branch, potentially altering campaign dynamics. Historically, Disney and its subsidiary Pixar have been exceptionally successful, earning over 20 nominations in the category since 1990.
A nomination for Best Original Song carries substantial economic and cultural weight. For the artists and songwriters, it can lead to a dramatic increase in streaming revenue, concert ticket sales, and future licensing opportunities, often referred to as the 'Oscar bump.' For the film studio, a nominated song provides invaluable marketing leverage, extending the film's promotional cycle and potentially boosting box office returns, especially during the crucial period between nomination announcements and the ceremony. The social impact is also significant, as nominated songs often amplify the themes of their films, bringing attention to social issues or historical narratives. For example, Common and John Legend's win for 'Glory' from 'Selma' in 2015 underscored the film's civil rights message to a global audience. The category also serves as a barometer for the evolving relationship between the music and film industries, indicating which artists and styles are currently valued by the cultural establishment. Downstream consequences include influencing soundtrack album sales and shaping the programming of awards shows and televised performances for months following the nominations.
As of late 2024, the landscape for the 98th Academy Awards' Best Original Song category is in its earliest formative stage. Films eligible for the 2026 Oscars are those with qualifying theatrical releases in calendar year 2025. Major studios are in production on numerous films slated for 2025 release that will contain original songs. Campaigns and 'for your consideration' efforts by studios will not begin in earnest until the final quarter of 2025. The official submission process for the category, where studios formally enter their songs for consideration, will occur in late 2025. Therefore, the specific identity of 'X' and its associated film is likely not yet public knowledge, and its path to nomination will be shaped by the film's success and the ensuing awards campaign throughout 2025.
To be eligible, a song must consist of words and music, both of which are original and written specifically for the film. It must be recorded for use in the film or as the first song played during the end credits, and it must be clearly audible and intelligible. The song must be submitted by the film's producer, and a complete copyright form must be filed with the Academy.
The nomination process is conducted by the Academy's Music Branch. Members of the branch view clips of each eligible song as it appears in the film and then vote using a preferential ballot. The five songs with the highest vote totals become the official nominees. For the final winner, all voting members of the Academy are eligible to vote.
Yes, songs from documentaries are fully eligible. A notable example is 'I'm Gonna Love Me Again' from the documentary 'Rocketman', which won the award in 2020. Documentaries often produce powerful, theme-driven songs that resonate with voters.
For the 98th Oscars in early 2026, the official nomination list is expected to be announced in mid-to-late January 2026. The awards ceremony itself is traditionally held on a Sunday in late February or early March 2026. The exact dates are usually confirmed by the Academy in the preceding year.
No, a live performance during the telecast is not a requirement for eligibility or winning. However, the producers of the Oscar broadcast typically invite performances of the nominated songs, which serves as major promotional exposure for the nominees.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
20 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Sinners) | Kalshi | 99% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (One Battle after Another) | Kalshi | 99% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Frankenstein) | Kalshi | 85% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Hamnet) | Kalshi | 85% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Marty Supreme) | Kalshi | 64% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Sirât) | Kalshi | 37% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (F1) | Kalshi | 37% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Bugonia) | Kalshi | 23% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Jay Kelly) | Kalshi | 13% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Tron: Ares) | Kalshi | 10% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Train Dreams) | Kalshi | 10% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Wicked: For Good) | Kalshi | 7% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Avatar: Fire and Ash) | Kalshi | 7% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Nuremberg) | Kalshi | 3% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Diane Warren: Relentless) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Captain America: Brave New World) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Truth and Treason) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (A House of Dynamite) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? (Hedda) | Kalshi | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/l5xNc7" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Oscar nominations for best Music (Original Score)?"></iframe>