Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

California's 11th District margin of victory

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$1.15K

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California's 11th District margin of victory

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$1.15K

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.15K

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $1.15K

100%

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6 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?	Kalshi	78%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?	Kalshi	64%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?	Kalshi	50%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?	Kalshi	29%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?	Kalshi	14%
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 20 percentage points?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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78%

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$1.15K

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About This Event

In 2026 If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Scott Wiener minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if S

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California's 11th District margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Scott Wiener minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if S

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives  election in California's 11th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percen"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $91
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $480
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 20 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $250
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 13.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

California's 11th District margin of victory

Volume$1.15K

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percen

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?

If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percen

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?

If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percen

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.5¢No 71.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?

If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.9¢No 86.1¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?

If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote perce

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California's 11th District margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

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Events (1)

California's 11th District margin of victory

Markets (6)

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California's 11th District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?

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