Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia coup attempt by...?

Name: Russia coup attempt by...?
End: 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$148.13K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Russia coup attempt by...?

Vol

$148.13K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $148.13K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $148.13K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Russia coup attempt by December 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Russia coup attempt by December 31, 2027?	Poly	19%
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$148.13K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or gene

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia coup attempt by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (447 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or gene

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $148.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $81.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.81)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russia coup attempt in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $147.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Russia coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $600
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics