This article covers the Polymarket event "Iran coup attempt by...?" The event groups contracts that ask whether a coup attempt in Iran will be widely reported within a set period. The provider's rule text says a contract resolves "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and otherwise resolves "No" [1]. The same rule text defines a coup attempt as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors, or factions of them, to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership [1]. The rules also exclude some events. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, and general unrest will not alone qualify [1]. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled count toward a "Yes" outcome only if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup do not qualify [1]. The provider says the resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting [1]. The saved event lists two contracts with different deadlines. One is titled "Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?" and the other "Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?" [1]. The rule text quoted in the event refers to June 30, 2026, so the contract titles and the rule text do not line up on the deadline. Readers should treat the full rules on the provider page as the controlling text for any specific contract, and should not assume that the event title, the contract title, and the rule summary describe the same window. The event's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. A listed end time or a contract date is a provider setting. It is not an announced event date, and it does not mean any coup-related event is scheduled or expected. In general terms, a coup d'etat is the overthrow of a lawful government through illegal means, and a coup attempt is a try at that outcome [2]. Some definitions cover soft or bloodless coups, and self-coups in which a ruler who came to power legally tries to stay in power illegally [2]. The contract's own wording is narrower than these general definitions, so the contract rules determine what counts.

Historical Context

The Wikipedia article on the 1953 Iranian coup d'etat says that on 19 August 1953, Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh was overthrown in a coup that strengthened the rule of the Shah [3]. The article states that the United Kingdom (MI6), under the name Operation Boot, and the United States (CIA), under the name TP-AJAX Project or Operation Ajax, instigated it [3]. It describes a key motive as protecting British oil interests in Iran after Mosaddegh nationalized the country's oil industry [3]. This is historical background only. It does not describe any present-day event or indicate whether a coup attempt is currently expected.

Frequently Asked Questions