$81.49
1
9
$81.49
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for April 6 at 2:45 PM ET.
Prediction markets give Napoli vs. Milan roughly a 2 in 3 chance of having over 1.5 total goals scored. This means traders collectively believe it is more likely than not that we will see at least two goals in the match. A 67% probability shows moderate confidence, but it is far from a sure thing.
Two main factors are likely shaping this prediction. First, recent history between these teams suggests goals are probable. Their last five meetings in all competitions have all featured at least two goals, with several high-scoring affairs. Second, the current state of both defenses supports this trend. Napoli and Milan have been inconsistent at the back this Serie A season. Neither side is among the league's top defenses in terms of goals conceded, and both possess attacking talent capable of exploiting defensive mistakes. This specific bet avoids picking a winner and instead focuses on a pattern that has held true recently.
The main event is the match itself on Saturday, April 6. The only developments that could shift this prediction before then would be significant team news. Confirmed injuries to key attacking players like Napoli's Victor Osimhen or Milan's Rafael Leão could make traders less confident in a high-scoring game. Conversely, news of a major defensive absence could push the probability even higher. Watch for the official team lineups released about an hour before kickoff for the final signal.
For soccer totals markets like "Over/Under 1.5 goals," prediction markets are generally decent forecasters because they aggregate many opinions. However, this is a niche market with a relatively small amount of money wagered, which can sometimes make the odds more volatile and less reliable than major political or financial markets. Soccer always involves randomness, so a 67% chance still means a one-in-three possibility of a 0-0 or 1-0 result.
The prediction market for SSC Napoli versus AC Milan is pricing in a 67% probability that the match will feature over 1.5 total goals. This price, translating to implied odds of -203, indicates the consensus expects a moderately high-scoring game. However, with only $0K in volume across nine related markets, this is a highly illiquid market. The thin trading activity means the current odds are not strongly anchored by significant capital and could be volatile.
The 67% probability for over 1.5 goals reflects a specific tactical expectation. Historically, matches between these top Serie A clubs are often tight, defensive affairs. The market's current lean toward the over suggests traders are weighing recent form and attacking personnel over that historical trend. Napoli's offensive struggles this season are a known factor, but Milan's defense has shown vulnerability, particularly in away matches. A price at 67% is not a strong conviction; it is a slight expectation that at least two goals will be scored, which is a relatively low bar for elite football.
Team news in the final 48 hours before kickoff will be the primary catalyst. An injury to a key attacker like Rafael Leão or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia would likely drive the probability for the over down significantly. Conversely, confirmation of a depleted defensive line for either side could push the "over" price above 75%. The thin liquidity amplifies the potential for sharp moves on minimal information. Traders should monitor pre-match press conferences for concrete updates on starting lineups and tactical setups, as these will have an outsized impact on the final market price.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on platforms like Kalshi prevents any cross-platform arbitrage and limits price discovery. The isolation on a single platform, combined with the negligible volume, means the 67% probability is more of a placeholder than a robust consensus. It provides a baseline sentiment but should be viewed with caution due to the complete lack of trading activity confirming the price.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on additional betting markets for the Serie A soccer match between SSC Napoli and AC Milan, scheduled for April 6 at 2:45 PM Eastern Time. The primary match outcome is typically covered by standard win-draw-win markets, but 'More Markets' refers to the extensive array of alternative propositions available for wagering. These can include specific player performance bets, exact score predictions, total goals scored, halftime/fulltime results, and various in-game events like which team scores first or receives the first yellow card. The availability of these markets reflects the growing sophistication of sports betting and the demand for more nuanced engagement with high-profile matches. This particular fixture is significant as it features two of Italy's most successful and historic clubs, both competing for European qualification positions in the 2023-2024 Serie A season. The match is a direct clash between the reigning Italian champions, Napoli, and the 2022 champions, AC Milan, adding a layer of recent historical rivalry. Interest in these markets is driven by fans, bettors, and analysts looking to leverage specific insights about team form, tactical setups, and individual player conditions beyond simply predicting the match winner. The timing in early April places it during the decisive final stretch of the league campaign, where every point carries amplified importance for continental competition.
The rivalry between Napoli and AC Milan is a classic of Italian football, dating back to their first Serie A meeting in the 1929-1930 season. While not a geographical derby, it gained significant intensity in the late 1980s during the Diego Maradona era at Napoli, when the southern club challenged the northern powerhouses of Milan, Juventus, and Inter for supremacy. Napoli's two Serie A titles (1987, 1990) were won in direct competition with a strong Milan side. In the 21st century, the fixture has remained a high-stakes encounter, often with implications for the Scudetto or Champions League qualification. A notable modern chapter began in the 2022-2023 season when Napoli, en route to their third Scudetto, defeated Milan twice in the league (2-1 at San Siro, 0-4 at the Maradona). However, Milan gained a measure of revenge in the 2023 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, eliminating Napoli with a 1-0 win in Naples and a 1-1 draw in Milan. This recent European clash adds a layer of immediate psychological context to their league meetings. Historically, the head-to-head record in Serie A is closely contested. Before the 2023-2024 season, the teams had met 153 times in the league, with Milan winning 58, Napoli 49, and 46 draws.
The proliferation of 'More Markets' for a match like Napoli vs. Milan reflects the substantial economic ecosystem surrounding modern football. Beyond traditional ticket and broadcast revenue, regulated sports betting represents a major financial stream for leagues, clubs, and media partners through advertising and data licensing. These specialized markets drive higher engagement, increasing viewership and discussion on digital platforms. For the clubs, the global betting interest underscores their commercial appeal and brand strength, which translates into sponsorship value. On a sporting level, the outcome of this match has direct consequences for the Serie A table and the financial rewards of European qualification. A place in the UEFA Champions League, for which both teams are fighting, is worth a minimum of €15-20 million in participation fees, with significant additional revenue from matchday and broadcast shares. For the city of Naples and the Lombardy region, matchday generates local economic activity, but the result also influences fan sentiment and cultural pride, with bragging rights between northern and southern Italy at stake.
As of early April 2024, SSC Napoli sits in 7th place in Serie A, fighting to climb into a European qualification spot. Their form has been inconsistent under new coach Francesco Calzona. AC Milan is firmly in 2nd place, having secured a significant points gap over 5th place but still aiming to consolidate their runner-up position ahead of Juventus. In their most recent Serie A encounter earlier in the season, on October 29, 2023, AC Milan defeated Napoli 2-2 at the San Siro, with goals from Olivier Giroud and a Theo Hernández penalty for Milan, and Matteo Politano and Giacomo Raspadori for Napoli. Both teams are coming off UEFA Europa League quarter-final first leg commitments in the days prior to this match, which may affect player fitness and tactical choices.
The match is scheduled for 2:45 PM Eastern Time (ET) on April 6, 2024. This corresponds to 8:45 PM Central European Time (CET) in Italy and 7:45 PM Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in the UK. For other timezones, subtract or add hours relative to ET.
In the United States, Serie A matches are broadcast on Paramount+ and CBS Sports Golazo Network. In Italy, the match is televised on DAZN and Sky Sport Italia. International broadcast rights vary by country, with services like Premier Sports in the UK and beIN Sports in many other regions holding the rights.
Common markets include Both Teams to Score, Total Goals Over/Under (e.g., over 2.5 goals), Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time result, Anytime Goalscorer, First Goalscorer, Total Corners, and Player to be Carded. Match-specific specials, like a player to score a header, are also offered.
The last Serie A meeting was on October 29, 2023, which ended in a 2-2 draw at the San Siro. The most recent decisive result was in the 2023 Champions League quarter-finals, where AC Milan advanced after a 1-0 win in Naples and a 1-1 draw in Milan.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 68% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 41% |
| Poly | 21% |
| Poly | 15% |
| Poly | 13% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 4% |
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