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Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?

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How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?

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Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	29%
Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	6%

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29%

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2026 elections If exactly X governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election, by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot, but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the lose

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 elections

If exactly X governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election, by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot, but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the lose

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, reten"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.5¢No 71.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

If exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retent

KALSHI

Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?

If exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retenti

KALSHI

Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.7¢No 88.3¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?

If exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retent

KALSHI

Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.4¢No 91.6¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?

If exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retent

KALSHI

Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.6¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?

If at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, reten

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Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

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Events (1)

How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?

Markets (6)

Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?

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Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

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How many Governors will lose reelection in 2026?

Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?

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