Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently price a 44% probability that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will win Turkey's next presidential election. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views his re-election as slightly less likely than not, but still a highly plausible outcome. With only $12,000 in volume spread across related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting this is a preliminary assessment rather than a hardened consensus. A 44% chance reflects significant uncertainty in a political landscape where Erdoğan is the defining incumbent but faces substantial economic and electoral challenges.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are suppressing Erdoğan's odds below the 50% threshold. First, Turkey's prolonged economic crisis, with inflation exceeding 50% annually and a severely depreciated lira, has eroded public confidence and constitutes the incumbent's greatest vulnerability. Second, the opposition demonstrated unprecedented cohesion in the 2023 general and presidential elections, forcing Erdoğan into a historic runoff which he ultimately won by a narrow margin. This proved a competitive path exists, and opposition parties are likely to build on this coalition model. The current pricing suggests markets believe these headwinds slightly outweigh Erdoğan's structural advantages in media control and political machinery.

What Could Change These Odds

The election date, which has not been formally set but is constitutionally required by 2028, is the key timeline catalyst. Odds will shift dramatically as the date approaches and candidacies solidify. A significant recovery in Turkey's economy, potentially through orthodox policy shifts, could rapidly improve Erdoğan's prospects and drive his probability above 50%. Conversely, a formal and united opposition announcement with a compelling candidate would likely depress his odds further. Major geopolitical events involving Turkey, such as a sharp escalation in regional conflict or a breakthrough in foreign policy, could also serve as volatility drivers for this market.