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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

WA-03 Primary Winners

Name: WA-03 Primary Winners
End: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$32.43K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

WA-03 Primary Winners

Vol

$32.43K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $32.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $32.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Poly	89%
Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?	Poly	88%
Will Suzzanna V. Tanner advance to the general election for WA-03?	Poly	32%
Will Antony Barran advance to the general election for WA-03?	Poly	28%
Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03?	Poly	25%
Will Eric Vaughan advance to the general election for WA-03?	Poly	16%
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$32.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** WA-03 Primary Winners
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 4, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Y"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $46.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.69)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Antony Barran advance to the general election for WA-03?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Suzzanna V. Tanner advance to the general election for WA-03?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $399
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eric Vaughan advance to the general election for WA-03?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $17.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 87.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics