Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?

Total Volume

$17.92K

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Markets

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Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?

Vol

$17.92K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $17.92K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.92K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?	Kalshi	83%
Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?	Kalshi	61%
Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?	Kalshi	19%
Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?	Kalshi	3%
Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$17.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election in Washoe County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?

Volume$17.92K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election in Clark County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This m

KALSHI

Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?

If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election in Washoe County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This

KALSHI

Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?

If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election in Carson City, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This ma

KALSHI

Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?

If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election in Douglas County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This

KALSHI

Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?

If Aaron Ford wins the 2026 Nevada Governor general election in Mineral County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This

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Average Yes Price

33¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/lU4DsD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?"></iframe>

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Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?

Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?

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Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?

Markets (5)

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?

Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?

Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?

Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?

Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?

Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?

Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?

Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Nevada Governor: which counties will Aaron Ford win?

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

Will Aaron Ford win Clark County?

Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?

Will Aaron Ford win Washoe County?

Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?

Will Aaron Ford win Carson City?

Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?

Will Aaron Ford win Douglas County?

Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?

Will Aaron Ford win Mineral County?

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