Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?

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$2.00

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Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?

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$2.00

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markets · $0.00

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markets · $2.00

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.00

100%

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2 markets tracked

Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?	Kalshi	50%
Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

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50%

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$2.00

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 If X wins voters 65 and older in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” voters 65 and older if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where X is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026

If X wins voters 65 and older in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, a party “wins” voters 65 and older if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll. If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where X is the number of tied strikes. CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican Party wins voters 65 and older in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” voters 65 and older if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit po"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?

Volume$2.00

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KALSHI

Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

If the Republican Party wins voters 65 and older in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” voters 65 and older if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit po

KALSHI

Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

If the Democratic Party wins voters 65 and older in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, a party “wins” voters 65 and older if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit po

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/lXNfee" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?"></iframe>

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Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?

Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?

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Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?

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Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

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Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Midterms: which party wins voters 65 and older?

Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

Will Republicans win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

Will Democrats win voters 65 and older in the exit poll?

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