Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

Total Volume

$16.08K

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Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

Vol

$16.08K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $16.08K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.08K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?	Kalshi	96%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?	Kalshi	87%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?	Kalshi	86%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?	Kalshi	60%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?	Kalshi	60%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Eaton County?	Kalshi	52%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Saginaw County?	Kalshi	51%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$16.08K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

In 2026 If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election in Saginaw County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Abdul El-Sayed win Saginaw County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $633
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Abdul El-Sayed win Eaton County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $620
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

Volume$16.08K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election in Oakland County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition:

KALSHI

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election in Kent County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: Thi

KALSHI

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election in Genesee County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition:

KALSHI

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election in Grand Traverse County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close cond

KALSHI

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?

If Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate general election in Muskegon County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition:

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70¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/l_M5yV" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?"></iframe>

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Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

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Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

Markets (7)

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Kent County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Grand Traverse County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Muskegon County?

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