What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction market traders on Kalshi currently give roughly a 2 in 3 chance (67%) that President Trump will pardon, commute, or grant reprieves to between 100 and 499 people before January 1, 2027. That leaves about a 1 in 3 chance the number falls outside that range, either under 100 or over 499.

In plain terms, the market expects a substantial but not extreme wave of clemency. A few dozen pardons would be a surprise. A thousand or more would also be a surprise. The sweet spot, according to traders, is a few hundred.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Several factors shape these odds. First, Trump's first term saw roughly 237 clemency actions, including 143 pardons and 94 commutations. That number lands squarely in the 100 to 499 range, so traders are partly extrapolating from precedent.

Second, Trump has already used clemency early in his second term. He pardoned roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants in his first weeks, including many who had already served their sentences. That spree was unusually large, which might suggest he could exceed the 499 upper bound. But those were mostly blanket actions tied to a specific group, not individual case-by-case pardons. The market seems to treat that as a separate event, not a signal of ongoing mass clemency.

Third, the historical baseline matters. Most modern presidents issue far fewer than 100 pardons per year. Obama averaged around 200 total across eight years. Biden issued about 80 total, with a few high-profile commutations. So even hitting 100 in under a year would be historically active. The market's confidence in the 100 to 499 range reflects a belief that Trump will be more generous than recent presidents, but not radically so.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The market closes early if the event occurs, meaning once the count hits 100, the contract resolves immediately. That creates a dynamic where traders are watching for triggers, not just the calendar.

The biggest signal would be another mass pardon announcement, similar to the January 6 sweep. If Trump issues another large categorical pardon, for example related to anti-abortion protesters or other political allies, the count could jump past 100 quickly. That would resolve the market before the year ends.

Other moments to watch include the traditional end-of-year pardon list, which many presidents issue around Christmas. If Trump follows that pattern, the count could climb in December. There's also the possibility of high-profile individual pardons tied to political allies or celebrities, which would be smaller but still add up.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a decent track record on binary political events, but clemency counts are trickier. The number depends on one person's discretion, not a structured process or election. That makes it harder to forecast than, say, a vote outcome.

The market's edge comes from aggregating many traders' knowledge of Trump's behavior, historical patterns, and current political dynamics. But the range is wide, and the upper bound of 499 could be breached if Trump decides to issue another sweeping pardon for a large group. The lower bound of 100 could be missed if he slows down after the January 6 wave.

Overall, the 67% probability suggests traders are fairly confident, but not certain. A 2 in 3 chance is a meaningful signal, not a guarantee. For anyone watching, the clearest takeaway is that the market expects clemency to be a notable feature of Trump's second term, just not an overwhelming one.