GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

Name: How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

Vol

$9.55K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.55K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.55K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will 5 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 5 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	35%
Will 4 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	22%
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	22%
Will 6 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	22%
Will 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	21%
Will 3 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	14%
Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	14%
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$9.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmenta

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (85 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmenta

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.59)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $610
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 3 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $261
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 4 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $321
  DATA: [Yes: 21.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 5 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $358
  DATA: [Yes: 35.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 6 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $476
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics